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Wkd BO 0414-1617 - Can't fight fate, Baby: F8 leaves WW B.O. opening record in dust
- Thread starter Guzim
- Start date
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BronsonLee
Member
Apparently Avatar has been tearing us apart for 8.5 years as well
DC will bring us together to the dinner table
I want ryutaro and Bobby to shake hands and bury the hatchet
mere seconds before I hit Bobby in the back with a steel folding chair
One last one for ya, ryu! The Rottenwatch thread:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=381920
Uhhhhh.....damn. We talked a lot about ABADAR.
ryutaro's mama
Member
It's just jokes, man!
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
That's a whole lot of MEMBER
I was trying to find a thread yesterday when we were talking about Avatar 2, and came across a November 2009 era Avatar post-production discussion thread by duckroll that was specifically stated to be the "no sculli allowed" thread. I chuckled a bit.
I believe there's been more than one such kind of thread haha. To be fair, Sculli's probably posted 100 or more Avatar threads.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Fuck Avatar, let's take a look at The Dark Knight BO thread: http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=327986&highlight=
That's... a lot of tinypic.
That's... a lot of tinypic.
ryutaro's mama
Member
The Dark Knight thread was Dmczaf's opus.
broncobuster
Banned
Now that's a site I've not heard of in a long time.
Was their a BO thread back then and were you part of it? I'd love to know how that first weekend went.
If you visit xaosslug's user profile and click on the link to his threads, you get 10 years of box office GAF in one convenient place, minus the 7-8 threads that I filled in for.
If you are on Mobile GAF, I think you can get to that list by clicking on his username in the OP.
Awesome thanks. People were expecting a 30% drop after week 1? LOL
ryutaro's mama
Member
Remember the threads where we discussed all the guerilla footage of the Bane fight in the snow and the Gotham Rogues scenes in Pittsburgh?
DM was so full of hope...then the plane scene with Little Finger screened and he was floating...
...
...
...and then the full movie released and with it, his dreams.
Even better! Thanks Swis!
I will admit that I made many a Google search before I thought of doing that. GAF's internal search isn't amazing.
It would be nice to have the archive system that the Media Create threads have on gaming side, but I would probably have to make and maintain it, and I have no interest in spending the time to do so.
But I know the rage that drives DM. That impossible anger strangling the grief, until the memory of his beloved franchise is just poison in his veins. And one day he caught himself wishing BatGAF had never existed, so he'd be spared his pain. He wasn't always here in Wrassle GAF. Once he had Guzim, his great love. He was.... taken from DM. Like you, he was forced to learn that box office threads exist without decency, that they must be trolled without hesitation, without pity. His anger gives him great power, but if he lets it, it will destroy him, as it almost did me.
ryutaro's mama
Member
10/10
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Age of Ultron's domestic run does give me extra appreciation for what TDKR accomplished, especially considering the tragic shooting that happened on OW for the latter.
Sooooo many in that old GAF thread predicted Age of Ultron would easily outgross The Force Awakens. That is bizarre to read.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Everyone assumed AoU would outgross Avengers (bad assumption) and that RotS was the best comparison for TFA (reeeeeally bad assumption).
Hindsight and all that, but I'm not sure why anyone thought those were good bets, let alone almost everyone.
At least no one expecting Jurassic World to beat AoU, let alone Avengers actually made sense.
broncobuster
Banned
People assumed a popular sci-fi franchise would somehow lose its popularity after a near decade absence. Questioning its relevancy and all that. I don't get it either.
Plus they failed to see Avengers 1 was more of an event than another Avengers movie.
Some thought Avengers 2 would cross $2bil lol.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Solo, you realize that post I immediately started reading in my head in
voice, right?
My Cocaine's
Age of Ultron did narrowly outgross the Avengers if you adjust the overseas earnings of both films to the same exchange rates. All of us were pretty slow to pick up on the fact that the USD was making large gains by the end of 2014. I don't think I really considered it until shortly before AoU released. Perhaps around the time that Furious 7 was blowing up.
Also, The Force Awakens ended up making more in the US, Canada, UK, and Australia than Civil War did worldwide. We like our space wizards in the Anglosphere.
Also, The Force Awakens ended up making more in the US, Canada, UK, and Australia than Civil War did worldwide. We like our space wizards in the Anglosphere.
Only 8,5 years? I had thought its been a decade alreadyApparently Avatar has been tearing us apart for 8.5 years as well
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
That's not why people doubted TFA. Phantom Menace was the second biggest film of all time, behind only the anomalous Titanic, after a far bigger gap. People doubted TFA because they thought the prequels had Batman & Robin'd the brand.
I was more referring to domestic, but still, you're right.
Only crazy people thought that AoU was going to top Avengers domestically
Just for fun, this is how 2015 looked if you removed the grosses of the 3 major English speaking territories:
1) Furious 7 - $1069M
2) The Force Awakens - $900M
3) Jurassic World - $879M
4) Age of Ultron - $838M
5) Minions - $714M
Jurassic World and Age of Ultron hold up better in comparison, but I do think that many of us were predicting that overseas would be a much bigger weak point for Star Wars than it proved to be in reality.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Right, but there's a lot of crazy people lol.
*points at several GAFers predicting $1b+ for TLJ domestic*
People are predicting it's gunna beat TFA domestically? Damn
at least some people, somewhere on earth are discussing the avatar franchise in some capacity
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Definitely. I didn't consider it a possibility that TFA would see more than 40% of its gross domestically, especially given Jurassic World exploded domestically but that still accounted for only 39% of the WW take.
I'll be curious to see if The Last Jedi can see a more typical breakdown for a modern blocbkuster. Rogue One doesn't seem to suggest so, but maybe the mainline titles will be able to grow in TFA's weaker markets.
Ha yeah, it was that $25m Monday that really started that crazy train and that $600m/Titanic dom was going to happen. People forgot it was summer weekdays though in relation to that second weekend drop and Friday increase. Still an amazing run and one of my favorite to follow.
Isn't that pretty much the truth for most films and kind of stating the obvious? If a film receives better WoM than previously earned then it would most likely have had a larger gross.
Well, the point was people were expecting it to have better WoM. AoU being a 3-star film was a shock.
I honestly don't think WOM mattered. Where would all the extra people come from? I think it would have been impossible to top the first. The first pretty much tapped out the viewing public and the sequel couldn't go anywhere but down. It's really simple math.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Yeah, isn't one of the bigger factors the ballooning of screen counts for opening weekends? Like, going all the way back to Jaws you had an then insane 464 screen opening, which is positively tiny now. So you have that, and generally more front-heavy runs.
For shits and giggles I looked at the top 100 openings of all time both in actual dollars and 2017-adjusted dollars and while there are naturally differences, they aren't really interesting ones. Out of the entire top 100 adjusted openings, only 9 were from the 1990s:
#30 - The Lost World - 1997 ($135,936,500 adjusted - $72,132,785 actual)
#51 - The Phantom Menace - 1999 ($110,374,300 adjusted - $64,820,970 actual)
#55 - Batman Forever - 1995 ($104,962,100 adjusted - $52,784,433 actual)
#70 - Independence Day - 1996 ($98,297,400 adjusted - $50,228,264 actual)
#71 - Jurassic Park - 1993 ($98,256,500 adjusted - $47,026,828 actual)
#73 - Toy Story 2 - ($97,719,200 adjusted - $57,388,839 actual)
#79 - Men in Black - 1997 ($96,240,100 adjusted - $51,068,455 actual)
#82 - Batman Returns - 1992 ($95,228,600 adjusted - $45,687,711 actual)
#88 - The Spy Who Shagged Me - 1999 ($93,084,000 adjusted - $54,917,604 actual)
Nothing earlier than 1992 makes it into the list, and the biggest move is TLW up to #30, but actually still makes it into the unadjusted top 100, in 90th place.
In the adjusted list the 2010s are still the largest category, with 47 films, followed by the 2000s with 44 films, and the 1990s in last with 9. In the unadjusted list it's 61/38/1. So no matter how you slice it the 2010s win, followed by the 2000s, with the 1990s trailing distantly. Seems pretty clear the trend would hold with a bigger range too. Screen count unsurprisingly has a strong co-relation, with 24 out of the top 25 films in the unadjusted list opening on 4,000 screens or higher (Deadpool is the exception with 3,558) and 23 out of the 25 adjusted openings did as well (exceptions being Sith at 3,661 and Spider-Man with 3,615).
So yeah, tl;dr adjusting opening weekends for inflation really doesn't do anything interesting at all. I would guess adjusted per-screen average would be more useful, but would probably have tons of caveats, so maybe not lol.
Perhaps people who skipped Avengers at the theatre but watched it via Blu-Ray/streaming. They could have liked it enough to show up for AoU.
I believe that was my thinking back then. Kind of a long shot looking back.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
K-Swiss already invented the best possible replacement for adjusted metrics.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Yup. It's pretty brilliant in its elegance, really. I think he applied it to totals originally, but it would naturally work just as well with openings.
But of course!
I never even thought about using that for opening weekends. Mojo already collects most of the data, so it would be pretty straight forward.
Using the same stipulation of counting only wide releases, here are the multipliers for all record breaking weekends since Jedi, compared the the annual average opening weekend for releases >600 venues.
For comparison sake, 6.00x last year was $130M. So Suicide Squad deviated further from the average than any of the 80s films listed, save Batman.
Using the same stipulation of counting only wide releases, here are the multipliers for all record breaking weekends since Jedi, compared the the annual average opening weekend for releases >600 venues.
Code:
Title OW Gross Year Annual OW Avg (wide) Multiplier
Return of the Jedi $23,019,618 1983 $4,199,884 5.48x
Temple of Doom $25,337,110 1984 $4,505,360 5.62x
Beverly Hills Cop 2 $26,348,555 1987 $4,427,905 5.95x
The Last Crusade $29,355,021 1989 $5,920,478 4.96x
Ghostbusters 2 $29,472,894 1989 $5,920,478 4.98x
Batman $40,489,746 1989 $5,920,478 6.84x
Batman Returns $45,687,711 1992 $7,099,434 6.44x
Jurassic Park $47,026,828 1993 $6,478,200 7.26x
Batman Forever $52,784,433 1995 $7,841,543 6.73x
The Lost World $72,132,785 1997 $10,080,531 7.16x
Harry Potter: atSS $90,294,621 2001 $15,313,480 5.90x
Spider-Man $114,844,116 2002 $15,786,477 7.27x
Dead Man's Chest $135,634,554 2006 $15,228,263 8.91x
Spider-Man 3 $151,116,516 2007 $15,438,835 9.79x
The Dark Knight $158,411,483 2008 $17,670,249 8.96x
Deathly Hallows 2 $169,189,427 2011 $21,020,331 8.05x
The Avengers $207,438,708 2012 $22,503,178 9.22x
Jurassic World $208,806,270 2015 $22,694,614 9.20x
The Force Awakens $247,966,675 2015 $22,694,614 10.93xFor comparison sake, 6.00x last year was $130M. So Suicide Squad deviated further from the average than any of the 80s films listed, save Batman.
Wait. Is someone arguing that a well-done Minecraft movie, based on the brand that launched a ton of books, toys, shirts, and other items, can't hit the $850-950 million range?
When people say "Harry Potter money," I'm thinking of multiple films which make billions of dollars, not a single successful film. Feels like an understatement of just how much money Harry Potter has made.
but avengers 3 will have the guardians of the galaxy and spider-man
$2 billion here we come
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