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Wkd BO 0414-1617 - Can't fight fate, Baby: F8 leaves WW B.O. opening record in dust
- Thread starter Guzim
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WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Yeah, that's the big thing. While I think Fast 7 would have made less domestically without it (I think it's entirely reasonable to believe that it would have done F6/F8 numbers domestically otherwise), you have something like Dark Knight, one of the most famously used examples, where it's just impossible to quantify what effect was had, if any. I think people over-attribute TDK's growth over Batman Begins to Ledger dying, forgetting that 1) Begins was likely stunted by the massive harm Batman & Robin caused and should have earned more, and 2) the fact that TDK was one of the best blockbusters ever made and easily an all-time great super hero film, with one of the most memorable performances of all time. So yeah, it was ALWAYS going to have earned WAY more money than Begins.
And the others don't even really have a frame of reference.
Yeah, top 5 all-time overseas is pretty good. It's just overshadowed by it shattering the domestic record by almost 200 million. And that previous record was already absurdly high.
MHWilliams
Member
Hollywood:
Jesus that's going to hurt. Studio are getting too good at spreading these tentpole pictures out.
Dash_Riprock
Member
I'm betting half those films are either delayed a year or two if not canceled outright.
hodayathink
Member
Hey, I never said it couldn't happen. I just said it'd be a stretch. And besides, wasn't this before Paul Walker died?
Edit: And also, I still find it funny that Minions beat out Civil War by 6,000 dollars. Not that it'll matter because of The Last Jedi, but like one more week in theaters would have put it over.
Double edit: And for all the shit I talked in that post, I never actually made a prediction. I was always pretty bummed about that, but it probably would have been Avatar/SW/Avengers/Finding Dory/BvS, so I would have been as wrong as everyone else.
LFMartins86
Member
Fox.
Discotheque
Banned
Mac from always sunny is directing minecraft so I don't care how shit it ends up being I wish it all the success for him
Really want the gang to take off in film beyond just Charlie Day
Really want the gang to take off in film beyond just Charlie Day
I mean it depends if kids care about Minecraft then. I have the feeling that the hype is already over but I can be wrong. Also, I expect a lot of kids to go to this movie because they want to feel nostalgia ;-)
Has any studio in the history of movies ever had as much of a monopoly on blockbusters as Disney does right now? It's absurd. Who's in second place, WB or Fox?
Universal is in first place for 2017 so far. Universal was also first place in 2015.
I've said this before but I know people who have seen market research where Minecraft is the number one brand (or however you choose to word it) among kids by a huge margin.
If, and I stress IF, Warners can get the execution right on this film it could be absolutely massive for them, Harry Potter big.
IN terms of franchises and IPs (both owned and licensed etc) Warner Bros are far and away in second place.
Ever since Alan Horn (now at Disney) was in charge of WB they've been pushing ahead with the event movie heavy slate (at the time an unheard of 8 event films a year) which everyone else now copies.
Disney has released one film so far this year not counting that Panda documentary. Universal won't be in first place by December 31st.
I think that other studios are going to have a hard time taking #1 for the rest of this decade. We'll see how the 2020s go.
What a weird comparison. Harry Potter was a popular book series, and adapting books to the screen has a long history of success. Meanwhile, video game movies... it will be especially hard for a game like Minecraft, where so much of its success relies on the gameplay and the way it allows you to author your own emergent story. How the heck do you translate that to a fixed-narrative film?
Worked for the Lego Movie...
I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's far from a sure thing.
Minecraft is easy to adapt into a narrative, because you can just do whatever you want, as long as you keep the general aesthetic and setting. This will be closer to adapting the Pirates of the Caribbean Ride into a film than it will be to adapting something like Assassins Creed.
I don't know how many people are going to dish out for a Minecraft film, but Angry Birds made decent money, and that was a lot less relevant last year than Minecraft will be when the film comes out.
I don't know how many people are going to dish out for a Minecraft film, but Angry Birds made decent money, and that was a lot less relevant last year than Minecraft will be when the film comes out.
Exactly. The idea that an IP like Angry Birds, which was well past it's prime, could do $100m in a summer slot is pretty amazing. I'd have put money on that bombing before it opened.
It's insane to proclaim it will bomb or do less than a billion. It is as equally insane to predict it will do better than The Force Awakens (or The Last Jedi).
ryutaro's mama
Member
Brandy is a timeless treasure.
Pretty big difference between Angry Birds money and Harry Potter money.
Fate of the Furious is at $235M (including service fees) in China after 5 days. That might be higher than the final domestic tally.
EDIT: $235M would be the 4th biggest 5-day total for a domestic movie, after TFA, Jurassic World, and the Avengers. TFA was way ahead with $325M by that point though.
EDIT: $235M would be the 4th biggest 5-day total for a domestic movie, after TFA, Jurassic World, and the Avengers. TFA was way ahead with $325M by that point though.
MHWilliams
Member
Wait. Is someone arguing that a well-done Minecraft movie, based on the brand that launched a ton of books, toys, shirts, and other items, can't hit the $850-950 million range?
Macho Madness
Member
Minecraft Story Mode did SUPER well. I think a movie could easily be a summer blockbuster.
Depends on how strong the brand is in two years. No idea how big Minecraft is right now, it looks like nobody cares anymore but I doubt this is true, but when they take to much time it will be like Angry Birds.Wait. Is someone arguing that a well-done Minecraft movie, based on the brand that launched a ton of books, toys, shirts, and other items, can't hit the $850-950 million range?
Wait. Is someone arguing that a well-done Minecraft movie, based on the brand that launched a ton of books, toys, shirts, and other items, can't hit the $850-950 million range?
Right. Because it's two years away and won't be as relevant. /s
BronsonLee
Member
If Microsoft does what I think they're gonna do (bake Minecraft into the next iteration of Windows to justify educational institutions to upgrade), it's fucking over
There is zero comparisons between Minecraft and Angry Birds. You can't be serious?
Minecraft is/was a super popular game franchise.
Angry Birds was a super popular game franchise.
Hm, its pretty comparable.
Minecraft still sells 25 million copies a year. Minecraft never goes on sale. Minecraft has outsold GTA V in the timeframe that GTA V has been out.
OK, then there is most likely still. Audience in two years.
BronsonLee
Member
it u
Macho Madness
Member
They're successful for different reasons. Angry Birds was a fad with broad appeal but without long lasting hooks.
Minecraft can keep going because it's constantly being updated, has expansive mod support, and multiplayer. They could muck it up and the current fad seems to be that Roblox thing but Minecraft keeps on trucking so far.
ClosingADoor
Member
Angry Birds was already out of peoples mind when the movie released. It was way too late to cash in on the hype.
It's like saying Lego is just a game. Minecraft has become platform in itself. It's more popular and sells more since MS has taken over. I'm sure it'll sell oodles on the Switch and on and on.
Is Angry Birds used in the education market? To call it just a game like Angry Birds is bit of a stretch.
I can understand why it would seem like Minecraft died off years back. The game was really big with GAF types during the alpha and beta, but those were 6-7 years ago, and people here have largely moved on.
However, kids have picked up this game in a way that has never happened with any game before it. Not even Super Mario was this big with the younger demographic.If you have children, there's a decent chance that they will go through a Minecraft phase at some point between 6 and 12. Which is also basically the target demo for LEGO (surprise surprise).
EDIT: Actually, I forgot about Pokemon. That is most comparable, especially if we are looking at the first few years of Pokemon.
MHWilliams
Member
It's uh... still relevant.
This was written in October:
The last numbers we got, this month mind you, put the game at 55 million unique monthly players.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
This page reads to me like shortly after reading about everyone three years ago completely whiffing on what's going to be huge today, people are lining up to whiff hard on what's going to be huge in three years.
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
It's like whenever they do a story set in the past and they have someone say that no one would buy a horseless carriage...
MHWilliams
Member
We're all speculation in here and no one has a great track record. Doesn't really make going in the other direction much better. The number of films folks have called as flops or middling successes that went on to box office success are many.
You think a good Minecraft film is a whiff?
BronsonLee
Member
Bobby made me believe in Lego Batman and now I'll never love again
At least when Disco went all in on The Nice Guys (which I finally watched!) he knew it was gonna fail out
At least when Disco went all in on The Nice Guys (which I finally watched!) he knew it was gonna fail out
Gentleman Jack
Member
It would take some kind of earth-shattering, Minecraft-sized miracle to wrest kids away from Minecraft to whatever The New Thing is, and even if that happened tomorrow a Minecraft movie 2 years from now will rake in all of the money.
I have no idea how big the Minecraft film will be. I honestly couldn't tell you if $750M worldwide is more likely than $300M worldwide. I do think that animation is the way to go with videogame films in general though, especially those franchises with younger fanbases. EDIT: Wait, Minecraft is live action?!?
That said, it's pretty clear that the gaming franchise is huge. And given that it has remained huge for over 5 years now, another 2 probably won't change much.
Most of the rest of 2019 is the same stuff we are getting today, so it's not THAT hard to throw out some general predictions. We're still watching the same stuff we did in 2015, which was basically the same stuff we watched in 2013.
I do think that the 2020s will mix things up a bit. We had a bunch of 00s mega-franchises that started to feel stale this decade, and I think the same thing will eventually happen to some of the bigger properties this decade. For example, how long can Minions keep going before it becomes the next Ice Age?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't have any opinions on Minecraft one way or the other. I just thought it was funny that we immediately went from "oh shit, we fucked that dog good three years ago, didn't we...
...oh shit, NEW DOGS."
It's not like, a criticism. It's just funny.
The game is the game!
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