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Wkd BO 04•14-16•17 - Can't fight fate, Baby: F8 leaves WW B.O. opening record in dust

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G

GAMEPROFF

Banned
Just to be clear, it really feelt for me like Minecraft is already gone. There were years were it was pretty dominant in popculture and in articles about something like "XYZ has build ABC in Mincraft".

I guess its just thats its nothing new and special anymore so these kind of articles and threads are no longer been written, but since I never remotly cared about Minecraft I got the feeling that its already about to go away.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
I don't have any opinions on Minecraft one way or the other. I just thought it was funny that we immediately went from "oh shit, we fucked that dog good three years ago, didn't we...

...oh shit, NEW DOGS."

It's not like, a criticism. It's just funny.
Click to expand...

Biggest-Geek-Ever did have a good point in that predictions are often framed to fit a past historical narrative that might not mean as much as we think.

The perfect example was Alice last year. I was pretty sure that it would at least hit $500M worldwide on the strength of the previous film, and the general box office pattern of late sequels overseas. Every single professional out there had it opening way higher than what ended up being reality, even if all of them expected hefty drops from the first film. It wasn't conceivable that the sequel to a $1B film could miss $300M worldwide.

The Jurassic World tracking covered earlier was another good example. As was the Avengers to an extent. Professionals were much more likely to venture into the $175M+ opening territory for their TDKR predictions than they were for the Avengers, even after the film opened to insane WOM overseas the week before.
 
K

kswiston

Member
GAMEPROFF said:
Just to be clear, it really feelt for me like Minecraft is already gone. There were years were it was pretty dominant in popculture and in articles about something like "XYZ has build ABC in Mincraft".

I guess its just thats its nothing new and special anymore so these kind of articles and threads are no longer been written, but since I never remotly cared about Minecraft I got the feeling that its already about to go away.
Click to expand...

That's just the GAF (and similar gaming community) effect. See League of Legends, World of Tanks, Clash of Clans, etc.

More people are playing League right now than will ever play Persona 5, but P5 gets way more talk here because we are the target demo.
 
G

gamz

Member
GAMEPROFF said:
Just to be clear, it really feelt for me like Minecraft is already gone. There were years were it was pretty dominant in popculture and in articles about something like "XYZ has build ABC in Mincraft".

I guess its just thats its nothing new and special anymore so these kind of articles and threads are no longer been written, but since I never remotly cared about Minecraft I got the feeling that its already about to go away.
Click to expand...

If I didn't have three young kids I would think just like you. Hell, I still don't get it, but the kids love it.
 
M

MHWilliams

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
It's not like, a criticism. It's just funny.

The game is the game!
Click to expand...

tumblr_nuz7wayAqK1uf8fcno1_250.gif


GAMEPROFF said:
Just to be clear, it really feelt for me like Minecraft is already gone. There were years were it was pretty dominant in popculture and in articles about something like "XYZ has build ABC in Mincraft".

I guess its just thats its nothing new and special anymore so these kind of articles and threads are no longer been written, but since I never remotly cared about Minecraft I got the feeling that its already about to go away.
Click to expand...

As Kswis pointed out, that's partially GAF effect.

For example, one of the more popular mainstream games right now is Ghost Recon Wildlands. You wouldn't know that from GAF. The Gaming main board tends to lean in a specific direction and sometimes misses strong and specialized communities.

I too would miss out on how popular Minecraft still is if I didn't have nephews and nieces.
 
B

BronsonLee

Member
GAF keeps trying to fight the friction

I did beta testing for that game with 3 other randos and could tell it was gonna be a hit cause we had a damn blast with it and I hate shooters and Ubi games
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Y'all talking about Minecraft but how bout dat Detective Pikachu movie eh? :p
 
K

kswiston

Member
Fate of the Furious made $8.5M on Monday (which a lot of schools had off due to Easter Monday)

Here are the first Mondays from the last few F&F films

Fast Five: $6.2M
Fast and Furious 6: $19.7M (Memorial Day)
Furious 7: $14.0M (Also Easter Monday)
 
S

soundscream

Member
kswiston said:
Fate of the Furious made $8.5M on Monday (which a lot of schools had off due to Easter Monday)

Here are the first Mondays from the last few F&F films

Fast Five: $6.2M
Fast and Furious 6: $19.7M (Memorial Day)
Furious 7: $14.0M (Also Easter Monday)
Click to expand...

Schools are closed on Easter Monday?
 
S

Solo

Member
jett said:
ABADAR DEUX will launch with a massive marketing machine, selling it as the sequel to biggest movie of all-time. Just like with the first Avatar, Fox media will put their full weight behind it.

It will be a success for sure.

And James Cameron gonna do what James Cameron does.
Click to expand...

ABADAR DEUX will make these threads fun again in a way they haven't been since.....ABADAR UNO.
 
K

kswiston

Member
soundscream said:
Schools are closed on Easter Monday?
Click to expand...

It's regional, but it makes enough of a difference that the regular cheap Tuesday bump is negated. F8 will probably be slightly down or even today.

Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
There's only been one box office thread to get locked for being too fun, and that was... the BvS OW thread.
Click to expand...

That thread was longer than all of the Avatar era Box office threads combined. This thread is already longer than the peak Avatar thread (its second weekend). Box Office GAF was small back then.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Solo said:
I see you, ryu.
Click to expand...

Nice.

Bobby Roberts said:
The idea they were at their most fun when Avatar was around is horseshit, though.
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Naw. The week after week run of greatness that was the ACTUAL BO threads during AHBUHDAR was unmatched. The salt was tremendous and I almost had a heart attack. :)

I know people like to point to the lulz of the meltdowns in the OTs that are specifically for the movies (ala BvS thread) was fun but that shit ISN'T the actual weekly BO threads.

Solo is referencing fun in THESE threads.
 
S

Solo

Member
kswiston said:
That thread was longer than all of the Avatar era Box office threads combined. This thread is already longer than the peak Avatar thread (its second weekend). Box Office GAF was small back then.
Click to expand...

It's not about post count or about the increase in popularity of box office at GAF though. It's about the hundreds of Gaffers who were certain it would bomb, who were seemingly vindicated on opening weekend, who were surprised when it was flat it's second weekend, who began to sweat a bit when it was flat again its third weekend, and were full on shitting their pants when it set the record for best 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th weekends, was #2 all time in 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th weekends. And then when it took down Titanic and crossed $2B......well, that was a memorable time here.
 
K

kswiston

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
Nice.



Naw. The week after week run of greatness that was the ACTUAL BO threads during AHBUHDAR was unmatched. The salt was tremendous and I almost had a heart attack. :)

I know people like to point to the lulz of the meltdowns in the OTs that are specifically for the movies (ala BvS thread) was fun but that shit ISN'T the actual weekly BO threads.

Solo is referencing fun in THESE threads.
Click to expand...


We spent more time/posts talking about Avatar 2 in this thread than you guys spent talking about Avatar's record breaking run in most of those old threads.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
ryutaro's mama said:
Naw. The week after week run of greatness that was the ACTUAL BO threads during AHBUHDAR was unmatched. The salt was tremendous
Click to expand...

I swear about 2/3rds of this board is going to die at age 50 from sodium-and-schadenfreude related heart disease.

An entire generation raised on the notion that true pleasure can only be derived from watching others suffer.

No wonder we elected Trump.
 
S

Solo

Member
kswiston said:
We spent more time/posts talking about Avatar 2 in this thread than you guys spent talking about Avatar's record breaking run in most of those old threads.
Click to expand...

I haven't (and don't plan to) revisit the old threads to crunch numbers. I just remember that it was unprecedented what happened in that 6 month span. And as I keep coming back to, it was just mostly funny due to the meltdowns. To this day whenever an Avatar thread pops up, the usual brigade pops up to incessantly shit on it. And honestly, if it didn't have that box office run...it doesn't get that kind of vitriol, either. Kind of like Titanic got all that vitriol for 12 years, and suddenly when Avatar passed it, people stopped shitting on it. It's an interesting phenomenon.
 
S

Solo

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
Anyone who thought Avatar was bombing after its OW didn't have a clue how December box office works.
Click to expand...

Anyone who says they thought it was going to do what it did is lying though, as a counterpoint. A $77M OW could have easily been a $300-$350M domestic haul total. It did over double that.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
kswiston said:
The perfect example was Alice last year. I was pretty sure that it would at least hit $500M worldwide on the strength of the previous film, and the general box office pattern of late sequels overseas. Every single professional out there had it opening way higher than what ended up being reality, even if all of them expected hefty drops from the first film. It wasn't conceivable that the sequel to a $1B film could miss $300M worldwide. .
Click to expand...

Just a reminder to those saying cultural impact has no affect on how much money sequels make.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
BronsonLee said:
I mean the OW was crappy but the second weekend didn't drop at all tho
Click to expand...
Not really, though. It was the second biggest OW for December, biggest for an original property, dropped only 3% on Sunday, and it had a bigger foreign OW than Return of the King ($165M vs $125M).

I obviously didn't have a clue it was going to make as much money as it did, but it was definitely looking at grossing at least a billion off the first weekend.

Solo said:
Anyone who says they thought it was going to do what it did is lying though, as a counterpoint. A $77M OW could have easily been a $300-$350M domestic haul total. It did over double that.
Click to expand...
That's fair. I'm just saying that anyone who tried to make a crow-eating list made up of Avatar fans at that point was delusional. :p
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Solo said:
I haven't (and don't plan to) revisit the old threads to crunch numbers. I just remember that it was unprecedented what happened in that 6 month span. And as I keep coming back to, it was just mostly funny due to the meltdowns. To this day whenever an Avatar thread pops up, the usual brigade pops up to incessantly shit on it. And honestly, if it didn't have that box office run...it doesn't get that kind of vitriol, either. Kind of like Titanic got all that vitriol for 12 years, and suddenly when Avatar passed it, people stopped shitting on it. It's an interesting phenomenon.
Click to expand...

I was proud to be there with you, Solo, old bean.
 
S

Solo

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
I was proud to be there with you, Solo, old bean.
Click to expand...

Searched Avatar and found some gems.

Short lived (quickly locked) crow thread:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=384537

Avatar passes Titanic worldwide:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=385894

Avatar passes Titanic domestically:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=386606

Alrus said:
A 77m December OW isn't really crappy though.
Click to expand...

It is when your movie costs $500M though. It's all relative.
 
W

WhiteRabbitEXE

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
Anyone who thought Avatar was bombing after its OW didn't have a clue how December box office works.
Click to expand...
December films tend to have stronger legs, but I mean average legs for a major December release would have yielded less than half of what Avatar actually ended up doing domestically. I Am Legend had almost the same opening weekend total 2 years prior (slightly higher actually) and came it a 1/3 of Avatar's domestic. (though I Am Legend dipped over the weekend and Avatar stayed flat)

Edit: And yeah, the movie cost a damn fortune.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
An entire generation raised on the notion that true pleasure can only be derived from watching others suffer.
Click to expand...

Suffer? Cause a movie did or didn't do well? LOL

If someone is truly suffering mentally from the returns on a movie (and not just having lighthearted fun) then their priorities in life are REALLY misaligned.

They should, as you would say, sit down. It ain't that serious.
 
S

Solo

Member
Damn. Looking at the WW thread.....Avatar beat Titanic's 9 month run in 7 weeks. The box office sure changed in 12 years.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
Anyone who thought Avatar was bombing after its OW didn't have a clue how December box office works.
Click to expand...

Ya. No one saw anything close to $2.7B coming, but the film had a $240M worldwide opening in December. Rogue One was pretty frontloaded for its 3rd week in December release slot, and it made it over $1B on a $290M opening in a similar number of territories. The worst case scenario for Avatar after the first weekend was still going to be up there with the Potter films of that era.

I missed the Neogaf box office party for Avatar, which is why it's surprising to see a thread that ran two record breaking weeks (presumably xaosslug took a holiday) hit less than 700 posts. And that was the TFA opening weekend thread of 2009 box office gaf. The others were like 200 posts.

Sort of an aside, but I have no idea why I skipped over these threads for so long. I didn't really start participating in these threads until 2012, around the time that The Avengers was kicking off. I have been pretty active on GAF for over a decade, and I have been following the weekly box office for over 20 years. You'd think that it would have clicked earlier. I have been a casual poster on the BOT forums since it started, and occasionally posted on the old Mojo boards for several years prior to that exodus, so it's not like I wasn't talking about these things at the time.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
ryutaro's mama said:
Suffer? Cause a movie did or didn't do well? LOL
Click to expand...

Your hyperbole detector is fucked.

Just enjoy your seat, dude.

It's comfy over there.

kswiston said:
Sort of an aside, but I have no idea why I skipped over these threads for so long. I didn't really start participating in these threads until 2012, around the time that The Avengers was kicking off. I have been pretty active on GAF for over a decade, and I have been following the weekly box office for over 20 years. You'd think that it would have clicked earlier. I have been a casual poster on the BOT forums since it started, and occasionally posted on the old Mojo boards for several years prior to that exodus, so it's not like I wasn't talking about these things at the time.
Click to expand...

You're here now, and we're all the better for it.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
It's like you're right on the verge of realizing that yes - it was hyperbolic

Like I just said.

C'mon man.

Just PM me if you need further explanation of how you keep fucking airballing this joke.
 
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