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April U.S. Primaries |OT| Vote in 20 Turns for World Leader

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J

jgwhiteus

Member
Syncytia said:
Hillary needs something around 57% or 58% of the remaining delegates. Honestly I really don't think Sanders will be too far behind whenever Hillary reaches the number to clinch the nomination.
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??? Wait, explain this math to me... she already has a lead in delegates. Why would she need to have a majority of remaining delegates to keep the lead? Couldn't she have less than 50% and still maintain the lead?

Are you sure you aren't mixing up Clinton and Sanders?
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
jgwhiteus said:
??? Wait, explain this math to me... she already has a lead in delegates. Why would she need to have a majority of remaining delegates to keep the lead? Couldn't she have less than 50% and still maintain the lead?

Are you sure you aren't mixing up Clinton and Sanders?
Click to expand...

i'm guessing it's 57-58% to hit 2383 with pledged alone
 
J

Jimmy King

Member
Brainfreeze said:
Jesus, even when Hilary destroys in a huge state Gaf still gets means about it.

At this point, Bernie is out. There's no chance of coming back. If there was any question before, it's gone now. If you think Bernie or his fans are embarrassing themselves, then just let them be and enjoy your victory. Pouring salt in the wound helps no one.

Reading these threads is continuously disheartening, and I'd hoped that would decrease as the gap widened.
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Listening to Jeff Weaver rhetoric is continuously disheartening, and I'd hoped that would decrease as the gap widened.

But seriously, I understand what you're saying. I know a lot of Bernie supporters are good people but there is an annoying subsection like there is with any group of its kind. Those people are why others are taking particular glee in the victory. It's all in the game, yo.
 
S

Scarfo

Banned
BlastProcessing said:
Primary turnout doesn't have much effect on general performance. If anything, it's counterindicative. Primary turnout indicates a contentious primary. For example Dukakis set primary turnout records because he and Jesse Jackson went toe to toe.
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So all those millions Sanders supporters and the millions of independents who couldn't vote in the numerous closed primaries, suddenly don't matter in the general? lol, ok you can continue to believe that.
 
OuterLimits

OuterLimits

Member
I saw an article that Sean Hannity and Ted Cruz got testy with each other in an interview today over delegates.

Nice win by Hillary. She did better than the polls. So did Trump it seems as well. His average was 53%
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Scarfo said:
So all those millions Sanders supporters and the millions of independents who couldn't vote in the numerous closed primaries, suddenly don't matter in the general? lol, ok you can continue to believe that.
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Who has done better in primaries than caucuses?

Which candidate do you think actually has a chance of beating Clinton and which demographics do you think will hand that candidate the win, given that Clinton is going to comfortably win women and minorities?
 
J

jaekeem

Member
Can't y'all just graciously accept defeat and keep fighting your fight in downticket seats

you guys are arguing for a candidate massively behind in delegates (not even counting supers) and the popular vote to the point where any path to victory defies reality

WHY ?? rofl..and you say "DEMOCRACY DEMOCRACY!!"

people voted...we don't want Bernie...move on
 
B

border

Member
Scarfo said:
So all those millions Sanders supporters and the millions of independents who couldn't vote in the numerous closed primaries, suddenly don't matter in the general?
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Sanders seems to have done pretty well in closed caucuses......

But beyond that, all he's saying is that primary turnout is not indicative of General Election turnout.
 
S

Syncytia

Member
My bad on the mix up with names.

eBay Huckster said:
i'm guessing it's 57-58% to hit 2383 with pledged alone
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Pledged alone. I've also been kind of disheartened by the fact that so many immediately supported her. Not that there isn't necessarily anything wrong with that, but I think it would make for a better primary process if we didn't start the first primary with Hillary already having 300+ super delegates behind her.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Scarfo said:
So all those millions Sanders supporters and the millions of independents who couldn't vote in the numerous closed primaries, suddenly don't matter in the general? lol, ok you can continue to believe that.
Click to expand...

That's not what I said at all. I said that historically, Primary turnout doesn't have large correlations with general performance and if anything they are inversely related. I then gave an example of how it's played out before.

Also historically, the party has rallied around the winner in far more contentious primaries. Most Sanders supporters will come home and support Clinton.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Syncytia said:
Pledged alone. I've also been kind of disheartened by the fact that so many immediately supported her. Not that there isn't necessarily anything wrong with that, but I think it would make for a better primary process if we didn't start the first primary with Hillary already having 300+ super delegates behind her.
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Well apparently Bernie didn't even try to make his case. It really doesn't matter as she will destroy him in the popular vote as well
 
B

Butts-a-plenty

Banned
Syncytia said:
Hillary needs something around 57% or 58% of the remaining delegates. Honestly I really don't think Sanders will be too far behind whenever Hillary reaches the number to clinch the nomination.



As far as delegate numbers, no it's not. But there's always been some reason that Bernie has zero chance of making it, right from when he started running and it just gets kind of old.
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No she doesn't. She just needs to keep the lead. Obama didn't make it without Super Delegates in 2008 either.

I understand being new to the process or whatever, but I think it is contributing to the misinformation about his chances...
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Syncytia said:
Pledged alone. I've also been kind of disheartened by the fact that so many immediately supported her. Not that there isn't necessarily anything wrong with that, but I think it would make for a better primary process if we didn't start the first primary with Hillary already having 300+ super delegates behind her.
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I cannot think of a single impact that has actually had. They would switch if Sanders took the lead, they always have. Your average voter has no idea what they are, so their effect on the narrative is minimal. How exactly have they hurt Sanders' chances?
 
S

Syncytia

Member
The Technomancer said:
I cannot think of a single impact that has actually had. They would switch if Sanders took the lead, they always have. Your average voter has no idea what they are, so their effect on the narrative is minimal. How exactly have they hurt Sanders' chances?
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Voter perception and the idea that Hillary it the automatic nominee this election.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Syncytia said:
Pledged alone. I've also been kind of disheartened by the fact that so many immediately supported her. Not that there isn't necessarily anything wrong with that, but I think it would make for a better primary process if we didn't start the first primary with Hillary already having 300+ super delegates behind her.
Click to expand...

It didn't stop Obama winning in 2008. And lots of those super delegates who supported Clinton before a vote was cast, ended up supporting Obama. No super delegates have voted yet, and they've never overturned the candidate who had the pledged delegate lead.
 
J

jgwhiteus

Member
Garrett Hawke said:
Ah, ye old we know better than you and you are dumb
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I also like that if you look at the actual populations of New York counties and the number of voters in the primary, you can see why winning "more counties" is meaningless.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-york

Like, look at Hamilton County, all 11 precincts reporting - 210 people voted for Sanders, 123 people voted for Hillary - fewer than 350 Democrat voters total in the entire county.

That's smaller than the number of Democrat voters in a single Manhattan block.
 
S

Scarfo

Banned
plagiarize said:
Who has done better in primaries than caucuses?

Which candidate do you think actually has a chance of beating Clinton and which demographics do you think will hand that candidate the win, given that Clinton is going to comfortably win women and minorities?
Click to expand...

Look, I'm supporting whoever the democratic party presents, and today it's officially Hillary. What I'm saying is since voter turn out is down overall (on the democratic side) regardless of demographics, it would be an wise suggestion for unity, now that this nomination process is basically at it's end. All this "we don't need or want bernie supporters" is ridiculous.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
The Technomancer said:
I cannot think of a single impact that has actually had. They would switch if Sanders took the lead, they always have. Your average voter has no idea what they are, so their effect on the narrative is minimal. How exactly have they hurt Sanders' chances?
Click to expand...

Well people say that when news media includes them it dampens their enthusiams to vote for Bernie which is kind of BS considering it didn't affect Obama too much. Most media outlets also talk about the race with and without superdelegates
 
G

giga

Member
that-stupid-drudge-siren-lol.gif


Jeff Weaver video: http://www.snappytv.com/tc/1757302
 
E

eyeball_kid

Member
pigeon said:
I actually don't have a problem with Sanders continuing to run, but for the record, if you expect people to baby you on the off chance you'll deliberately screw up your own life by voting for Trump when you previously supported Sanders, then frankly you should probably just vote for Trump. He represents the policy-blind self-centered demographic extremely well.
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Excuse me? Nowhere have I said I'd be protest-voting for that fascist bozo or anyone else. I'm just pointing out the constant condescension by HillaryGAF (which you just underscored in your own reply); it's not productive or unifying. Obviously there are Bernie nutjobs out there, but I don't think reddit represents most of us here.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Scarfo said:
Look, I'm supporting whoever the democratic party presents, and today it's officially Hillary. What I'm saying is since voter turn out is down overall regardless of demographics, it would be an wise suggestion for unity, now that this nomination process is basically at it's end. All this "we don't need or want bernie supporters" is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

fwiw, the clinton campaign is actually making a push for unity right now, so i wouldn't take neogaf too seriously re: not giving a shit
 
OuterLimits

OuterLimits

Member
Trump won everywhere except Manhattan. The son of the mailman did well there. Trump getting 82% on Staten Island. He also dominated Buffalo area. Maybe Rex Ryan helped him. Lol.

Hillary dominated in the city. Not surprising.
 
T

Tobor

Member
Syncytia said:
Voter perception and the idea that Hillary it the automatic nominee this election.
Click to expand...

And how did that work out in 2008? She had the same presumptive super delegate lead then.

Superdelegates did not defeat Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders inability to build a mainstream coalition defeated Bernie Sanders.
 
A

Aerogamer

Neo Member
Hillary Clinton has a 2.6 million popular vote lead over Bernie Sanders as of right now. If things go as planned on the 26th that will be around 3 million. Bernie Sanders was not robbed and the Super Delegates are following the will of the voters if we look at this metric. Also it has been over since the five state sweep a month ago.
 
S

Syncytia

Member
plagiarize said:
It didn't stop Obama winning in 2008. And lots of those super delegates who supported Clinton before a vote was cast, ended up supporting Obama. No super delegates have voted yet, and they've never overturned the candidate who had the pledged delegate lead.
Click to expand...

I just mean as far as the primary process itself and the candidates competing for the nomination. Without the pledged delegates, Hillary's lead would be slightly less comfortable than it is and I would hope that would in turn cause her to campaign harder (better?).
 
B

border

Member
Syncytia said:
Voter perception and the idea that Hillary it the automatic nominee this election.
Click to expand...

I think that's offset by the fact that the mass media has been insistent that the Democratic primary is very close, and was touting every early Sanders victory as a major turning point. The truth of the matter is that Clinton was a heavy favorite from the start though, but the "It's a horse race" narrative certainly kept Sanders supporters coming to the polls.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Tobor said:
And how did that work out in 2008? She had the same presumptive super delegate then.

Superdelegates did not defeat Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders inability to build a mainstream coalition defeated Bernie Sanders.
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steve kornacki just mentioned on MSNBC that gary hart also tried to make superdelegates flip after mondale had already won a majority of delegates & the popular vote back in '84

didn't get shit
 
P

Piecake

Member
Scarfo said:
Look, I'm supporting whoever the democratic party presents, and today it's officially Hillary. What I'm saying is since voter turn out is down overall (on the democratic side) regardless of demographics, it would be an wise suggestion for unity, now that this nomination process is basically at it's end. All this "we don't need or want bernie supporters" is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

That is what Clinton is doing.

If some Bernie supporters say they aren't voting because some Clinton supporters hurt their feelings then they weren't going to vote in the general election anyway. If you care about the issues and the direction of the country you will vote no matter what.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Syncytia said:
Voter perception and the idea that Hillary it the automatic nominee this election.
Click to expand...

Hillary was the prohibitive favorite going into '08 too. Obama out-organized and out-campaigned her and won more pledged delegates and the superdelegates switched.

Bernie just never made the numbers or the case.
 
G

Garrett Hawke

Member
Some gems:
Trump or bust. (posted by "hillaryisaho")
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Who knew all it took to get NY city was to purge 126,000 voters from registration rolls and staff broken voting machines at election booths?
Have to hand it to Hillary, she certainly knows how to utilized her infrastructure.
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Hillary and the DNC should be credited with euthanizing American democracy.
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If it comes down to Trump/Hillary, I literally do not care who wins. They are both horrific.
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Bonus:
Well, that's what affirmative action gets us. The unqualified woman gets the job because of people choosing her because they want a woman.
Click to expand...
And that's what happened with Obama on his first term, because of his skin color
Click to expand...
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Syncytia said:
My bad on the mix up with names.



Pledged alone. I've also been kind of disheartened by the fact that so many immediately supported her. Not that there isn't necessarily anything wrong with that, but I think it would make for a better primary process if we didn't start the first primary with Hillary already having 300+ super delegates behind her.
Click to expand...

As Jeff Weaver will no doubt tell you, those superdelegates are not bound and can switch their vote at any time, so it's not like Hillary had them locked in a closet.

I can understand why it feels sketchy that so many of them said they'd vote for Hillary, but something to keep in mind is that the majority of superdelegates are Democratic politicians, and saying they can't pledge their vote is basically the same as saying they can't endorse a candidate at all. I'm not convinced that eliminating political endorsements would be good for the party or for democracy in general.
 
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