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[Mownoc]

January 2025 Welfare's estimate

PS5: 245K
NSW: 130K
XBS: 125K

January 2024 estimate

PS5: 425K
NSW: 255K
XBS: 210K

So Wellfare is saying A 50% drop in revenue results in a 40.5% drop in units for Xbox. So he's guessing that the average Xbox purchase price is 16% lower in January 2025 than in January 2024. That's substantially lower! I must have missed the price cut. 16% off the RRP of a Series X would be an $80 discount!

Or Xbox prices haven't decreased that much and Wellfare is overinflating Xbox sales numbers again. Hmmm which is it?

The digital Series X launched but that's 10% cheaper than the standard X, not 16% and it could have convinced more people to buy that instead of a Series S too. The average purchase price dropping by a huge 16% YoY has no logic to it.

(Just went on installbase and it's worse, his estimate is now 127k, that would be a 17.4% decrease in average purchase price lmao.)

 

[aliadiere25]

Stolen from installbase

Hardly surprising considering the PS5 Pro is around £700 and the PS4 Pro sold for roughly the same price as the PS4.

 

[Sooner]

No Indy?

It's not out yet.

 

[Pedro Motta]

adamsapple keeps telling me I'm wrong about Gamepass devalueing games and not creating sales.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

On Ps5? Maybe in the long run but I don't think it will sell that well at launch.

I agree, I was giving my most optimistic expectation.

But since SoT took 4 months to reach 1M sales on PS5, maybe I'm too optimistic.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Ctrl - F 'veilguard' zero results

Ctrl - F 'hogwart's' many results

I noticed they like to use Ree forum purple for Xbox instead of green.

 

[touchfuzzy]

There's no core gamers left on Xbox to actually purchase and play a single player adventure game like Indiana Jones. It's a machine for casuals to play sports, racing, and COD on, or for people to buy a cheap Series S for their kids to play Roblox, Fortnite, and Minecraft. I think it will perform okay once it releases on PS5.

 

[LordOcidax]

Drops aren't quite as bad as they seem, last January was 5 weeks

The drop is bad no matter how you look at, and is a world wide situation for everybody.

 

[Unknown?]

Sonic beating that mustache man!

 

[onQ123]

So Wellfare is saying A 50% drop in revenue results in a 40.5% drop in units for Xbox. So he's guessing that the average Xbox purchase price is 16% lower in January 2025 than in January 2024. That's substantially lower! I must have missed the price cut. 16% off the RRP of a Series X would be an $80 discount!

Or Xbox prices haven't decreased that much and Wellfare is overinflating Xbox sales numbers again. Hmmm which is it?

The digital Xbox Series X is about $60 cheaper.

 

[tTHANOSs]

January 2025 Welfare's Estimate

PS5: 245K
NSW: 130K
XBS: 125K

January 2024 Estimate

PS5: 425K
NSW: 255K
XBS: 210K

We need someone else to do estimates. I'm not looking at welfare estimates anymore. They are obviously off.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

That’s interesting. Lessens impact a bit. That said I think Sony really needs a price drop here.

It's crazy to think that the PS5 costs more now than it did at launch, as it enters its fifth year on the market.

Crazy.

MS pretty much has given up on Xbox Series and Nintendo is about to launch Switch 2.

The problem with Xbox is that Microsoft has too much money. Too big a company, they would need to lose at least another $100B+ unnecessarily before they fully course correct. Because somehow, only the people at MS and some of their advid ignorant supporters, didn't see the writing on the wall over 7 years ago... and even now that they seem to see it... they are still burning money on stupid initiatives and strategies that are all going nowhere and they do not need to do.

Eg... what singular good reason, what possible benefit, do they have right now not to have just gone full on 100% third party and release their games day and date on the platform that sells their games the most? How much more money does their stupidity need to make them lose? How many more jobs and studios need to be axed?

I worry about Switch 2... but its too early for me to be saying this.

 

[LordOcidax]

Something wrong with this numbers
Xbox drop should be 50%, Sony 38% and here Sony drop higher than xbox

You are using the % of spending not units sales.

 

[onQ123]

There's no core gamers left on Xbox to actually purchase and play a single player adventure game like Indiana Jones. It's a machine for casuals to play sports, racing, and COD on, or for people to buy a cheap Series S for their kids to play Roblox, Fortnite, and Minecraft. I think it will perform okay once it releases on PS5.

But Indiana Jones also released on PC so this isn't a Xbox problem.

 

[Mownoc]

The digital Xbox Series X is about $60 cheaper.

$449.99 vs $499.99 isn't it? Which isn't enough for the units and revenue to match in his estimations. He's actually saying 127k which would be a 17.4% decrease in average purchase price. The equivalent of $87 off the RRP of a Series X. It doesn't make any sense the average purchase price of Xbox Hardware would be this much lower.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

But Indiana Jones also released on PC so this isn't a Xbox problem.

It's just a mediocre looking game.
We'll see the same with Avowed.

Xbox is just mediocre games, with the rare exception like COD or Forza.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

I don't recall anyone claiming people were lying about being disappointed in Sony 1st party.

People were saying most people don't care as much as a vocal minority.

And we know how the vast majority of buyers actually feel about Sonys first party out

We in fact do know almost 70% of the people who bothered to vote on the poll here felt the PS5 was the worst generation for first party output because analog_future only mentioned games in his post

I don't remotely intend to pretend to know how everyone outside of GAF feels about the first party output but some here think they do just based on number of consoles sold

And I am not wading back through that cluster fuck of a thread looking for posts that tried discounting how disappointed people are in Sonys first party output

 

[Mibu no ookami]

crazy that Spiderman 2 is still charting in the top 10 overall and Indiana Jones is nowhere to be seen.

Spider-Man 2 while performative got a bump from the PC release which would have covered pre-orders and day 1 and day 2 sales.

 

[ShakenG]

"and needing a quick fix of shooting others"

Backs away

 

[LordOcidax]

We need someone else to do estimates. I'm not looking at welfare estimates anymore. They are obviously off.

How you know they are wrong?

 

[Killjoy-NL]

And we know how the vast majority of buyers actually feel about Sonys first party out

We in fact do know almost 70% of the people who bothered to vote on the poll here felt the PS5 was the worst generation for first party output because analog_future only mentioned games in his post

I don't remotely intend to pretend to know how everyone outside of GAF feels about the first party output but some here think they do just based on number of consoles sold

And I am not wading back through that cluster fuck of a thread looking for posts that tried discounting how disappointed people are in Sonys first party output

The argument people are making is that it doesn't matter whether or not Sony's 1st party output is lacking.

Edit:

Besides, it's highly subjective anyway.

 

[Hari Seldon]

Damn shame about Indy, one of the best games I played in a while. Definitely the best written game that I can remember.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Hardly surprising considering the PS5 Pro is around £700 and the PS4 Pro sold for roughly the same price as the PS4.

PS5 Pro pacing was impacted by heavy discounting of the PS5 base. To not mention that or the difference in total revenue seems to me to be more than misleading.

We need someone else to do estimates. I'm not looking at welfare estimates anymore. They are obviously off.

Absolutely. I've said it for a long time that Welfare estimates were way off and the problem with his estimates are the more off he is, the more off he is going to be in the future. That people took his estimates as the gold standard has caused a massive problem in amateur analysis. He might as well be VGChartz at this point.

But Indiana Jones also released on PC so this isn't a Xbox problem.

Not really the type of game that is going to perform at full price on PC. So many people think console = PC and it just isn't.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

The argument people are making is that it doesn't matter whether or not Sony's 1st party output is lacking.

Edit:

Besides, it's highly subjective anyway.

My point all along its totally subjective so people who felt a certain way no matter which way that may be aren't wrong

 

[LordOcidax]

Absolutely. I've said it for a long time that Welfare estimates were way off and the problem with his estimates are the more off he is, the more off he is going to be in the future. That people took his estimates as the gold standard has caused a massive problem in amateur analysis. He might as well be VGChartz at this point.

Again… How you know that?

 

[adamsapple]

And I am not wading back through that cluster fuck of a thread looking for posts that tried discounting how disappointed people are in Sonys first party output

There's far too many posts of our friend Jim saying it in one way or another so that'd be like shooting fish in a barrel .. but there is this one guy who wrote this ..

Spoiler

Look at me, I'm the O onQ123 now.

 

[onQ123]

It's crazy to think that the PS5 costs more now than it did at launch, as it enters its fifth year on the market.

Crazy.

The problem with Xbox is that Microsoft has too much money. Too big a company, they would need to lose at least another $100B+ unnecessarily before they fully course correct. Because somehow, only the people at MS and some of their advid ignorant supporters, didn't see the writing on the wall over 7 years ago... and even now that they seem to see it... they are still burning money on stupid initiatives and strategies that are all going nowhere and they do not need to do.

Eg... what singular good reason, what possible benefit, do they have right now not to have just gone full on 100% third party and release their games day and date on the platform that sells their games the most? How much more money does their stupidity need to make them lose? How many more jobs and studios need to be axed?

I worry about Switch 2... but its too early for me to be saying this.

Even crazier there is a chance that it could go up some more

There's far too many posts of our friend Jim saying it in one way or another so that'd be like shooting fish in a barrel .. but there is this one guy who wrote this ..

Spoiler

Look at me, I'm the O onQ123 now.

And you failed at being me because that doesn't add up

 

[Killjoy-NL]

There's far too many posts of our friend Jim saying it in one way or another so that'd be like shooting fish in a barrel .. but there is this one guy who wrote this ..

Spoiler

Look at me, I'm the O onQ123 now.

Most people don't care about all this though, so O onQ123 wasn't wrong.

Clearly if they did, Playstation would be following Xbox.

 

[adamsapple]

Most people don't care about all this though, so O onQ123 wasn't wrong.

Clearly if they did, Playstation would be following Xbox.

Good looking out for our homie but that wasn't the question or the reason I capped that response.

 

[Topher]

That’s interesting. Lessens impact a bit. That said I think Sony really needs a price drop here.

MS pretty much has given up on Xbox Series and Nintendo is about to launch Switch 2.

Yep. Seems Sony bean counters are more interested in margins at the moment. Complacency due to lack of competition, imo.

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

I mean...why wouldn't these consoles all fall in units sold? No price drops, no new games...the newest console in here was released in 2020.

The market is stagnated for now. Monster Hunter is the next big thing to do something for the market and that releases the last day this month.

About PS5 Pro vs PS4 Pro...well yeah. it's a 700$ piece of hardware.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

There's far too many posts of our friend Jim saying it in one way or another so that'd be like shooting fish in a barrel .. but there is this one guy who wrote this ..

Spoiler

Look at me, I'm the O onQ123 now.

Jim was by far the worst and I knew O onQ123 had that post that sales equaled quality and or satisfaction in a thread started about first party games output

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Jim was by far the worst and I knew O onQ123 had that post that sales equaled quality and or satisfaction in a thread started about first party games output

All this sounds more like a reverse-psychology attempt at damage controlling the absence of Indy in the Circana charts, while it had high scores.

 

[onQ123]

$449.99 vs $499.99 isn't it? Which isn't enough for the units and revenue to match in his estimations. He's actually saying 127k which would be a 17.4% decrease in average purchase price. The equivalent of $87 off the RRP of a Series X. It doesn't make any sense the average purchase price of Xbox Hardware would be this much lower.

I thought I seen it being sold for $439 on Amazon

But yes his numbers can be off at times but they are usually adjusted once pointed out.

I believe dirty math is used for quick estimates then he go back to adjust when he has better data to use.

 

[onQ123]

Jim was by far the worst and I knew O onQ123 had that post that sales equaled quality and or satisfaction in a thread started about first party games output

The hell?

No my post was pointing out how small the group on NeoGaf was compared to the real world

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Again… How you know that?

Because they weren't lining up with reported numbers. His estimates are based on revenue without a proper understanding of revenue splits and he wouldn't revise his numbers (to my knowledge) when reported numbers reftute his estimates.

First instance the PS5 could generate more revenue in a month but be significantly down in units because of the PS5 Pro, but if you don't know the ratio of PS5 Pros sold on top of the split between digital and non digital, you're numbers are naturally going to be off.

Xbox has a multitude of skus across Series S and X and discounting can change month to month.

Welfare's numbers have been increasingly off base and his model needs a reset, but all the baseline data is corrupt. Not really his fault, it's simply the nature of the multiple SKU market we live in and the lack of transparency we get from NPD/Circana.

I don't think Welfare is malicious, but given the work he puts in, he should have been able to see that his numbers were off.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

All this sounds more like a reverse-psychology attempt at damage controlling the absence of Indy in the Circana charts, while it had high scores.

Not totally sure if this was meant as a joke as I am not good at picking up context in type but what do I care if Indy sells well or not?

The hell?

No my post was pointing out how small the group on NeoGaf was compared to the real world

Oh I gotcha so you have the pulse of the real world on how they feel about first party output?

Is this where we circle back to sales data?

 

[Welfare]

So Wellfare is saying A 50% drop in revenue results in a 40.5% drop in units for Xbox. So he's guessing that the average Xbox purchase price is 16% lower in January 2025 than in January 2024. That's substantially lower! I must have missed the price cut. 16% off the RRP of a Series X would be an $80 discount!

Or Xbox prices haven't decreased that much and Wellfare is overinflating Xbox sales numbers again. Hmmm which is it?

The digital Series X launched but that's 10% cheaper than the standard X, not 16% and it could have convinced more people to buy that instead of a Series S too. The average purchase price dropping by a huge 16% YoY has no logic to it.

(Just went on installbase and it's worse, his estimate is now 127k, that would be a 17.4% decrease in average purchase price lmao.)

My numbers for January 2024 were updated months after the fact. The current month always uses my most up to date numbers.

 

[Kacho]

wtf Welfare outta nowhere.

 

[tTHANOSs]

Again… How you know that?

These are all esimates dude. We know they are not exact numbers. Would be great if he shows how he getting these numbers. I don't believe welfare is a reliable score for this information. I mean why do people take his estimates as fact anyway?

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

Spider-Man 2 while performative got a bump from the PC release which would have covered pre-orders and day 1 and day 2 sales.

True but SM2 was still charting the previous month even before the PC release and it came out in 2023.

I'm comparing both because both are Disney titles tied to franchises that are big outside of gaming.

 

[onQ123]

Not totally sure if this was meant as a joke as I am not good at picking up context in type but what do I care if Indy sells well or not?



Oh I gotcha so you have the pulse of the real world on how they feel about first party output?

Is this where we circle back to sales data?

Another problem is you took your interpretation of what " Cemented as worst PlayStation Generation" means to equal what everyone else should feel.

Even though it was pointed out that most people didn't focus on 1st party when buying PlayStation

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Not totally sure if this was meant as a joke as I am not good at picking up context in type but what do I care if Indy sells well or not?

Just making an observation.

 

[LordOcidax]

These are all esimates dude. We know they are not exact numbers. Would be great if he shows how he getting these numbers. I don't believe welfare is a reliable score for this information. I mean why do people take his estimates as fact anyway?

We know that… But how you know that their estimates are wrong?? Matt have access to NPD numbers and in a some way he tends to give to thumbs up to Welfare estimates…

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Another problem is you took your interpretation of what " Cemented as worst PlayStation Generation" means to equal what everyone else should feel.

Even though it was pointed out that most people didn't focus on 1st party when buying PlayStation

Nahh my only interpretation was off his post of talking about first party games, I didn't try and read anything else into it

Just making an observation.

That's cool, don't know I have ever brought up Indy sales data, pretty big leap there

 

[sloppyjoe_gamer]

Stolen from installbase

I auto disregard anyone with a PedoSky account lol

 

[Topher]

Stolen from installbase

Impressive that PS5 Pro was ever ahead of PS4 Pro considering the difference in price.

 

[Unknown?]

And we know how the vast majority of buyers actually feel about Sonys first party out

We in fact do know almost 70% of the people who bothered to vote on the poll here felt the PS5 was the worst generation for first party output because analog_future only mentioned games in his post

I don't remotely intend to pretend to know how everyone outside of GAF feels about the first party output but some here think they do just based on number of consoles sold

And I am not wading back through that cluster fuck of a thread looking for posts that tried discounting how disappointed people are in Sonys first party output

"Normie's" don't care because they don't know what 1st part is. They don't know what 2nd party is. They don't know what a 3rd party exclusive is. They just know what system gets more games and the extreme Normie's just play popular games anyway.

 

[LordOcidax]

Because they weren't lining up with reported numbers. His estimates are based on revenue without a proper understanding of revenue splits and he wouldn't revise his numbers (to my knowledge) when reported numbers reftute his estimates.

First instance the PS5 could generate more revenue in a month but be significantly down in units because of the PS5 Pro, but if you don't know the ratio of PS5 Pros sold on top of the split between digital and non digital, you're numbers are naturally going to be off.

Xbox has a multitude of skus across Series S and X and discounting can change month to month.

Welfare's numbers have been increasingly off base and his model needs a reset, but all the baseline data is corrupt. Not really his fault, it's simply the nature of the multiple SKU market we live in and the lack of transparency we get from NPD/Circana.

I don't think Welfare is malicious, but given the work he puts in, he should have been able to see that his numbers were off.

The only company that give us regional splits numbers is Nintendo and in the case of the NA region were Welfare give us the estimates, Nintendo report the whole america region (Including south america and central). The people that have access to the NPD data tends to agree with Welfare in some form… It’s not like people believe in Welfare because is a random user in a forum throwing numbers, and it looks like he have access to the data.