Bumblebeetuna
Member
Everyone has a bias. Also I didn’t say so, around 68-70% of GAF said so. But again at the end of the day we’re talking about meaningless opinions on a forum.
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Circana January 2025: #1 Black Ops 6 #2 Madden #3 FF7 Rebirth #8 Donkey Kong Country Returns ; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, NSW #2 Units, XBS #2 Rev
- Thread starter Thick Thighs Save Lives
- Start date
- Sales-Age
Everyone has a bias. Also I didn’t say so, around 68-70% of GAF said so. But again at the end of the day we’re talking about meaningless opinions on a forum.
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
Everyone has a preference. There's a difference. That someone would call notable games "farts in the wind" is clearly something else.
Felessan
Member
the whole stuff reeks of "survival bias"
like ps1 gen games are great for those, whose favorite games survived since ps1.
poll inherently unfair for people who get in in ps5 era - they literally have no choice - either give a 100% choice for a platform you completely new to, or abstain and have no influence over the poll
Killjoy-NL
Member
If MachineGames made another Wolfenstein, you expect it to do much better than Indy?
kazuyamishima
Member
For all the doom and gloom, the PS5 did similar numbers compared to the PS4 in January 2018, and that was the launch month of Monster Hunter World.
Unknown?
Member
People still talk about those games but when they released, we had people like you talking smack about them and how they didn't match the games from 10-15 years prior.
Welfare
Member
I'm not sure what you're asking for specifically since every stat I use is known. Prices, SKU availability via rankings, SKU splits thanks to Mat, any percentage changes thanks to Mat. I'm also not sure what "numbers match what you're looking to see" means, unless you think I'm cooking the numbers to what I want? That isn't how this works.
My initial estimates are good enough to get an idea of how each console is trending at the time. What I first estimated last year has been changed and my new estimates are based on those. Anything about PS5 being near 275K is not accurate, same as thinking Switch and Xbox are only at 100K.
Series X was because Amazon and Walmart were showing a high share of the digital X in January, but they did the same for December which wasn't seen nationwide so I thought other retailers would pick up the slack again. Turns out the severity of the X supply decline was drastic everywhere. I'm probably going to take retailer rankings less into account such as Best Buy, GameStop, and Target as they show way better results for the Pro than in reality, and the X digital and S are typically lower than what Circana data shows.
The anniversary editions did not sell much, they had no impact on the shipments last quarter.
PS5 Pro did launch but at best only matched PS4 Pro launch sales worldwide. We unfortunately don't have much if any European data on the Pro after launch but the US decline is by ~200K and Japan was equal. Pro maybe did 1.5M, but if it's behind 4 Pro in revenue now in the US, at best US sales are only slightly above 300K as of this month. 1M - 1.5M is a likely range for Pro last quarter.
Sony didn't revise last FY's forecast until after the holiday quarter despite signs being there as of the September quarter that they'd fall below 25M shipped.
PS5 had a much better quarter than it was trending towards off the back of the discounts and Xbox no longer competing. That isn't something the data was pointing to before October.
Ok let's not do revisionist history - they sold everything they made of them. They just kept them limited like they promised they will (even less made total than the 500M edition which was 50k).
Obviously that is less than a drop in the bucket of PS5 total shipments though.
Woopah
Member
I think you're just backing up what Welfare is saying here.
Bumblebeetuna
Member
Sure, depending on the type of Wolfenstein game it is.
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
The problem isn't that you're using public data, the problem is your model and the discourse that it engenders whether it is accurate or not.
Mat doesn't always report splits and again, with the PS5 Pro launching you'll never know the correct split if he just breaks it down by physical and digital as the Pro is considerably more expensive than the digital and the disc version.
I'm not saying you're cooking the books, I'm saying that seeing your numbers match is making you overconfident that your model is accurate when it clearly has holes.
The fact that you have to revise your estimates should give you pause for your model and clue you in to the fact that you're not seeing the full picture. I'm glad you're at least revising it them though.
You've historically given a heavier split to the XSS giving the Xbox more total units sold than it probably has. I'm not sure how you've undercounted the PS5, but you've done that as well.
So rather than make your model public, you're going to adjust the model because there is a clear issue that you're only taking into account because someone is calling out your model... Honestly, think about that.
Peer review would have told you this ahead of time. You can do a random audit of Xbox availability simply by selecting a few random zip codes and checking xbox supply at various retailers compared to PlayStation inventory.
You only think that because you're missing key context, which is that the anniversary editions were initially exclusive on PlayStation Direct and sold out on PlayStation Direct before they were ever made available at retail and once sold out at retail it becomes much more difficult to gauge at most retailers how well something actually sold. They absolutely had a major impact on shipments.
Did Mat P say it was behind in revenue or in units? I'd be very surprised to see it behind on revenue.
You seem to still be confused as to how Sony blew past their forecast. It wasn't the anniversary editions which are in a blindspot for you and it wasn't the PS5 Pro, and it wasn't Japan, and it wasn't Europe.. and there was no major release in China after Black Myth Wukong, so we would have already seen the boost in sales there in the previous quarter.
I accurately stated that Sony wasn't going to reach 25 million units despite the lack of a revision and I accurately assessed they would hit their forecast this year. What am I seeing that you're not?
The PS5 was discounted last year as well. The PS5 significantly outsold itself this quarter compared to last. 9.5 million compared to 8.2 million. It did so with Europe down and Japan down.
Again, the boost was the 30th anniversary editions and the Pro, which anyone could see were going to create a boost.
Quotes from me in September:
XXL
Member
So the PS5 Pro is pretty much x2 the Xbox Series X/S sales in NA.
LordOcidax
Member
Looks like the PS5 Pro was behind since month 1, was ahead in revenue, now is behind in revenue too according to the last install base update.
Updates
PS5 Pro has fallen behind PS4 Pro pace (Units were down since Month 1, now revenue is behind)
Topher
Identifies as young
Where is this from?
I think it was Mat I seen the tweet or whatever they call Blue sky posts
Edit:
Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social)
PS5 Pro has fallen behind PS4 Pro's pace. Digital SKUs accounted for 49% of PS5 HW units in Jan and 88% of XBS units.
bsky.app
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Topher
Identifies as young
I see where he says PS5 Pro fell behind PS4 Pro pace, but I don't see where he is saying revenue or units.
Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social)
PS5 Pro has fallen behind PS4 Pro's pace. Digital SKUs accounted for 49% of PS5 HW units in Jan and 88% of XBS units.
bsky.app
Welfare
can you share the source for that?I see where he says PS5 Pro fell behind PS4 Pro pace, but I don't see where he is saying revenue or units.
Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social)
PS5 Pro has fallen behind PS4 Pro's pace. Digital SKUs accounted for 49% of PS5 HW units in Jan and 88% of XBS units.
I'm guessing that it has to be revenue because units was already lower.
REDRZA MWS
Member
For all the hate it gets Madddn has stayed a top seller since sega Genesis 
LordOcidax
Member
Welfare updated the thread on Installbase, looks like the info comes from Piscatella, The PS5Pro is now behind the PS4Pro in units and revenue in US, according to some calculations is around -40% units.
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Topher
Identifies as young
I just saw his post explaining units were already down vs PS4 Pro so this must be revenue.
bender
What time is it?
I'm happy with this news as it keeps my hopes alive for a reasonably priced PS6.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
It should have been a different game, but the one they made is the best they could have done. A third-person game from them would have been worse.
Unknown?
Member
It shouldn't have used a dead IP.
DavidGzz
Gold Member
I'm in favor of old franchises making a comeback via games. I think it would be a cool way of keeping them alive. Karate Kid is doing great on Netflix even though it was dead. If Indy was third person and good like Uncharted or better, it could have gotten several sequels. Idk about that now.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
I just realized (because of people on the internet) that the Xbox series had a decline of 50%.
How long a console can decline until they would need to produce consoles in the future to account for the lack of demand in the present?
How long a console can decline until they would need to produce consoles in the future to account for the lack of demand in the present?
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
IP is so important and so many companies give up on IP way too quickly.
Syphon Filter always lived in the shadow of Metal Gear Solid and Splinter Cell, but with Kojima being fired at Konami and Splinter Cell being relegated to the dustbins a revival actually makes a ton of sense of Bend Studios more so than whatever GaaS game they were making that got canceled. A high budget nextgen stealth/spy action AAA Syphon Filter with good gameplay would sell gangbusters right now.
Resident Evil is way more successful now than it ever was initially. And that's evidence that you can bring games back to become even more popular. The same was true of Tomb Raider until they exclusivity deal killed that franchise.
Red Dead Revolver became Red Dead Redemption/Online... think about that...Capcom must be happy with Monster Hunter and RE, but they must be kicking themselves on this one, but that's in hindsight. Red Dead Revolver was nothing special. Rockstar took their open world formula and mixed it with Red Dead.
Doom and Prince of Persia also had massive comebacks.
Top Gun Maverick did 1.5 billion at the global box office. The original movie while no slouch, only did 357 million.
Studios should be constantly doing portfolio reviews and take a look at old franchises and identify what they would look like in a modern setting. Super Mario Kart and Mario Kart 64 both sold less than 10 million units. On the Wii it hit almost 40 million and on Switch 63 million...
I think you should always try to bring franchises back at least once.
There's no snowboarding game on the market right now. Are you telling me there is ZERO potential for Coolboarders or SSX? I think Tony Hawk 1+2 remake sold really well, but just not well enough to please Activision. Good enough for 20th best selling game in North America in 2020. Not bad for a remake. Number 17 in the same year was DBZ Kakarot... and now look at DBZ Sparking Zero... you have to keep up with these franchises...
Look at College Football 25 becoming the best selling sports game in US history... after the franchise was shuttered because it didn't make sense alongside Madden... Yes, having actual licensing for the players helps a lot, but it was a game long overdue.
It's stunning that T2 didn't immediately announce College Basketball 2K26.
Insanemaelstrom
Member
Gt sport took around 4 years to release from gt6, gt 7 also took around the same time. Gt 8 is due next year. Also kaz and PD have started talking about gt8 and at the same time updates have been slowing down for gt7. While still an assumption, it is very likely that gt8 will be released next year. As for paid expansion, it isn't very likely, gt sport had the hamilton dlc but that was basically few time trials but nothing when it comes to paid tracks or cars. It doesn't fit their model.
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viveks86
Member
My understanding is that they are changing their business model to a live service game. I feel like they are still making tweaks and experimenting with online multiplayer and it would be too early to switch to a whole new game. On the single player front, at the minimum, they are going to need Sophy to work on any event, track combination, car, weather or pitting strategy to be a significant differentiator. Don’t know if they’ll have that ready in a year, given the baby steps they are taking. We shall see, I guess
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Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
Game development takes a lot longer now than it did back then.
GT7 built around GT Sport. I'm not sure that GT8 doing the same, but not playing on PS4 is going to be some revelation.
I suppose if Sophy essentially takes over as the AI across the board that would be something, but I'm not sure what GT8 would really do to sell itself compared to GT7. I wouldn't be surprised if the next GT is a full blown live service game, maybe even a F2P game. But most of the big improvements would come from stuff like VR improvements. I think Yamauchi is going to focus more on the 4K120 modes from now on, but that's already available in GT7 though not perfect. To deliver 4K120 at 60 fps fidelity is going to be a tall ask even for PS6.
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
If Sony is smart they'll lock up the F1 license and apply a DLC for Gran Turismo based on it.
Edit: If I were Sony, I'd look to make Gran Turismo the quintessential racing game like EA FC by locking up F1, WRC, Nascar, and MotoGP. Anywhere there was racing, I'd have Gran Turismo marketing there.
Make the game essentially a live service game with expansions releasing annually and the overall game itself gets updated once every 6 or so years.
At this point I think they'll largely run out of ways to really keep enhancing it. The graphics can only get so good. You've got to try and lock people into the brand.
Edit: If I were Sony, I'd look to make Gran Turismo the quintessential racing game like EA FC by locking up F1, WRC, Nascar, and MotoGP. Anywhere there was racing, I'd have Gran Turismo marketing there.
Make the game essentially a live service game with expansions releasing annually and the overall game itself gets updated once every 6 or so years.
At this point I think they'll largely run out of ways to really keep enhancing it. The graphics can only get so good. You've got to try and lock people into the brand.
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ChorizoPicozo
Member
easy, an actual deformation model, they can even use "real economy" tied to it.
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
Eh, I think that would just piss people off. I think licensing is a better play, because it ensures continuous revenue and the cost to maintain the games is significantly less because it's using one primary game engine.
viveks86
Member
Don’t know how Bugatti would feel about that. Thought the issue was always the restriction in licensing
ChorizoPicozo
Member
We are talking about "the real driving simulator". i think making the game more casual will actually piss off people more.
I'm thinking more about how can they make a new Gran Turismo to capture the "This Is A Next Gen Experience" moment. What can they do from a video game design/features perspective? Probably Sophie wull be used from the get-go for the next installment.
And about the licensing, you are right. But that would be par for the course.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
i know that is the common argument.
but there will be a moment when they will need to do something truly groundbreaking and i think it can be tackled in "Profesional way" if it us truly a big issue for the brands.
Insanemaelstrom
Member
Gt 7 is a live service game. So was gt sport. I don't see them changing this model when it has been so beneficial for them. Gt7 has the highest revenue in the series for a reason. Plus having dlc cars and tracks, fragments the playerbase leading to all sorts of issues when it comes to MP and especially eSports. Even without spphy gt 8 will sell bonkers amount. Improved physics, new tracks and cars, with better campaign is all that the playerbase wants. It is also the main differentiator between gt 1 and gt 2, gt 3 and gt 4, gt 5 and gt 6. It has always been that way. As for sophy, it is there at almost all the tracks now, plus 2-3 tracks support gets added almost every update. The main thing remaining is fuel and pitting and I am pretty sure they are working on that in the background. 1 year seems enough to have it working.
Gt 6 has car models from gt4. PD is not shy or afraid to use car scans from previous games. Gt7 has the best car models in the industry and it still isn't using PD's scan data to the fullest( you can easily notice it if you go to scapes or garage model view). They already have higher detailed model that they aren't using, probably because gt7 also has to run on ps4. I am unable to find the article but back during gt sports release PD had revealed that gt sport's car model scans are good for 8k 120fps. Gt 8 is going to use better version of the same scans they been doing since gt sport. The main differentiator will probably be physics, tracks and campaign( the thing that fans want the most). More content. Also, all the tracks will finally get weather system. That is how it has always been with gt. Gt 1 laid the foundation, gt 2 was gt 1 with more content. Gt 3 laid the foundation during ps2, gt 4 was gt 3 with far more content, same with gt5 and gt 6. PD had always done that and that is what the fanbase expects and wants. Gt sport is not counted as a main series title, it is similar to gt 5 prologue but for gt 7. Gt 8 will be a better gt7. Better physics, more cars, more tracks, better campaign, etc. And probably sophy AI as the standard enemy AI.
It doesn't fit the kind of game gt has been. Gt has always been about taking shitboxes or cars you drive in real life, and using driving them around famous tracks in the world. It has always been more about road cars than racing cars. That's why, for every single gt, road cars outnumber race cars. As for formula 1 or other series, gt releases a time accurate version under their own label. We recently had a 90s formula car added as gran turismo f3500-A, I don't see the need for them to change that. Gt 5 did have nascar but again it wasn't a huge part. Polyphony has licensed with pikes peak, imsa and even fia( if I remember correctly, gt 7 tracks are fia certified). I don't see them making expansions based on that either, atleast not paid. Gt is currently big on eSports and having paid dlc tracks and cars fragments the player base too much( iracing is facing a lot of issues due to that). It's why gt sport didn't have paid cars or tracks. And why gt 7 hasn't had it till date. Gt 6 dlcs were also free. No reason to change that.
What gt player base wants( according to reddit forums and gt planet for gt 8)-
1. Better campaign.
2. More tracks
3. More recent cars.
4. Better physics
5. Weather on all tracks.
6. Better AI
That's all Polyphony needs to do.
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
I'm aware of the history of GT, I just don't think that model works when you don't have been improvements in graphics from game to game. You saw that especially going from GT5 to GT6.
GT is always evolving. There was no online play until GT5P, even though online probably would have been possible with GT3. PGR2 had online racing 4 years earlier.
Killjoy-NL
Member
It'll be similar. It's just how it is going forward.
Bumblebeetuna
Member
Cool story, bro
Killjoy-NL
Member
It's okay, you can still like it. Just giving a heads-up.
Bumblebeetuna
Member
If it’s as accurate as the rest of the nonsense you say on here about Xbox, sales should be pretty good.
Killjoy-NL
Member
Which nonsense?
Indy flopping?
Avowed flopping?
Hellblade not being the GOTG?
Xbox going 3rd party?
SoT not being a hit on PS5?
I'm losing track.
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Darkness_Arises
Member
No intention of buying, same with most western developed games. 70$ is too much for these games. I am just buying 2 full-priced games this year: MH Wilds on PS5 and Xenoblade X, when I get the Switch 2.
demigod
Member
First person view, gross.
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
What was the last really successful campaign focused FPS?
Bumblebeetuna
Member
Wolfenstein 2 must have been successful, they got another Wolfenstein greenlit.
“Really successful”, none of us have any idea what would make Wolfenstein or other games “really successful”.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
It actually was, it was a top seller in Europe
Killjoy-NL
Member
It's certainly not going to be from sales.
MachineGames might even get shutdown if their next game flops.
They'll already be lucky if it doesn't happen if Indy doesn't perform too well on PS5.
Killjoy-NL
Member
Took 4 months to get 1M sales.
That's not a success.
Former Xbox Exclusive Is Reportedly Selling Great on PS5
A newly emerged report suggests that at least one former Xbox console exclusive has been enjoying excellent sales on the PlayStation 5.
gamerant.com