Perhaps, but it isn't necessarily Indy, rather Xbox 1st party output.That's cool, don't know I have ever brought up Indy sales data, pretty big leap there
Perhaps, but it isn't necessarily Indy, rather Xbox 1st party output.
A lot sounds like frustration over the fact that one company is failing despite supposedly 'great' 1st party output, while another is succeeding despite supposedly 'terrible' 1st party output.
I am not remotely happy with Xbox 1st party games and have said many times 3rd party is carrying this generation for mePerhaps, but it isn't necessarily Indy, rather Xbox 1st party output.
A lot sounds like frustration over the fact that one company is failing despite supposedly 'great' 1st party output, while another is succeeding despite supposedly 'terrible' 1st party output.
Yeah, like 0.000001% of the entire PS5 installbase.If you look at it entirely from a console warrior perspective as you always do, sure.
The reality is that thread is chock full of PS5 owners who are just sick of Sony’s lazy software output on PS5.
My numbers for January 2024 were updated months after the fact. The current month always uses my most up to date numbers.
So Wellfare is saying A 50% drop in revenue results in a 40.5% drop in units for Xbox. So he's guessing that the average Xbox purchase price is 16% lower in January 2025 than in January 2024. That's substantially lower! I must have missed the price cut. 16% off the RRP of a Series X would be an $80 discount!
Or Xbox prices haven't decreased that much and Wellfare is overinflating Xbox sales numbers again. Hmmm which is it?
The digital Series X launched but that's 10% cheaper than the standard X, not 16% and it could have convinced more people to buy that instead of a Series S too. The average purchase price dropping by a huge 16% YoY has no logic to it.
(Just went on installbase and it's worse, his estimate is now 127k, that would be a 17.4% decrease in average purchase price lmao.)
I'm the one delusional & not the people that was making posts like this?
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Post in thread 'Amazon.com - PS5: 153K, Switch: 56K, Xbox: 32K, PSVR2 23K' https://www.neogaf.com/threads/amaz...56k-xbox-32k-psvr2-23k.1677952/post-269875007
Personally had hopes that was Starfields title to take but that game let me down so muchA small group on NeoGaf would have had me believing that Indiana Jones was going to be the second coming.
We know that… But how you know that their estimates are wrong?? Matt have access to NPD numbers and in a some way he tends to give to thumbs up to Welfare estimates…
Give it till April and his new magical number is gonna be 50M sold.Welfare always tries to find the best case scenario for Xbox.
A dead console that did 500k in a 5 weeks December and traditionally sells badly outside the holiday season is now still able to sell over 100k in a 4 weeks January.
Just like he was dreaming about the 36m Xbox sold this gen![]()
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It was clear since the reveal that it was going to flop.A small group on NeoGaf would have had me believing that Indiana Jones was going to be the second coming.
The only company that give us regional splits numbers is Nintendo and in the case of the NA region were Welfare give us the estimates, Nintendo report the whole america region (Including south america and central). The people that have access to the NPD data tends to agree with Welfare in some form… It’s not like people believe in Welfare because is a random user in a forum throwing numbers, and it looks like he have access to the data.
What reported numbers? Neither Sony or Microsoft reports sales numbers by region…Again, we know they're wrong because they don't line up with reported numbers (numbers that have to be far more accurate). His numbers for PS5 are low and his numbers for Xbox are high.
The other problem you have to realize is the source of the data (NPD). Not only is it not transparent but its accuracy should be put in question (maybe not as much as Famitsu and Media Create but still).
I love business analysis and I love the video game industry. Following the industry from a business perspective has been a huge hobby of mine since the turn of the century... But data has only gotten worse, which makes it even more important for us to be accurate with estimates, especially when those estimates are then used to analyze situations contextually.
Stolen from installbase
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We are talking about welfare here, he only give estimates number from the NA region. You can’t said he is wrong without give a counter argument with some kind of data.Sony doesn't give us regional splits, but we know their numbers are down in Europe and the UK and we get great hardware numbers out of Japan. For Sony to have had such a record quarter, would have been based on North American sales predominantly.
Welfare does not have access to the data, he takes the same things we're getting from Mat P and puts together his estimates.
There are insights that many of us could share with Welfare in a public document.
For example Welfare was caught off guard by the digital to physical split for Xbox, but many of us who have been paying attention know that the 1TB XSX has almost been discontinued. Most local retailers don't carry them. It's largely been replaced by the 450 dollar digital XSX. That's something that would need to be updated in a model anytime a new SKU is introduced and especially if it essentially replaces a SKU.
It would not surprise me if the black XSX has been discontinued at production and what we're seeing is all pre-existing inventory.
If you go to Amazon, try to buy more than 4 black XSX... you can't.... you're immediately rate limited.
PS5 disc? You could buy 1000 before being rate limited.
If I have learned anything from other threads this must mean COD is still the best game made and every single person is totally happy with it right?
We are talking about welfare here, he only give estimates number from the NA region. You can’t said he is wrong without give a counter argument with some kind of data.
Donkey Kong should've been a free game on Nintendo online system.Rebirth, Mario Party, Sparking Zero, Elden Ring, Astrobot, Donkey Kong, Sonic, forever Mario Kart, MaryJane-Man 2.
The world is healing.
As someone who voted for ps5 in that thread, I would like to give some context. Ps4 was my first console. For that poll, I only compared ps5 to ps4. I didnt consider ps3, ps2 and ps1 because I didn't have them( even though I have played on them). Moreover, for that poll I am comparing 7-8 years of ps4 to 3-4 years of ps5. Not to mention the fact that ps games are also going to pc which does lessen the value of the console for me. So keeping all that in mind, I voted for ps5 and I believe I am not the only one.Oh I guess you haven't been a part of the whole thread of the PS5 being cemented as the worst generation and a few in there saying since its selling so well and making record profits that equates to people lying about being disappointed in Sonys first party output and those sales records proves its the greatest generation ever
So I will forgive you for not seeing those posts in that thread
I'll just say there are very few instances over the past few years that my estimates are off by an egregious amount for any one platform, and often it's due to unexplainable price changes I have no idea why even exist. I also already take into account the possible ranges for each console when I post the results. If I'm posting PS5 is ~245K, I'm not seeing it selling over 250K, and 250K is less likely.I think you'd be well served to create a Google sheet documenting the variables in your model on a monthly basis and set it up for peer review.
I think the result would in the best case be more accurate numbers or in the worst case at least be transparent in the lack of accuracy.
People are entirely unaware of the level of deviation your estimates have from reality and it forms narratives, especially when they're then used to create historical charting.
Estimates should also include a confidence factor.
For example if known PS5 units for a given month were 5 million units and we know for that month that there was no broad based discounting and we know the digital (450) to disc split (500), for easy math, let's call it 50/50. We could say revenue for that month was 2.375 billion.
When things get more murky is when a new SKU is entered like the PS5 with a drastically difference price point. Estimates should probably shift to ranges rather than specific numbers especially if a split isn't given.
For example you asked Mat about the PS5 Pro pace and he said its fallen behind the pace and he gave what percentage digital skus were with PS5 digital skus which includes the PS5 Pro at 49%, we can either create a total range that includes 0 digital and 100% pro and vice versa, or we could take a look at historical digital vs physical ratios and trends and create a confidence model of +/- 5% which would give us a better idea of how many PS5s probably sold.
It's a lot for one person to handle.
April - September 2024 did not ship enough consoles for Sony to hit 18M shipped for a 12 month periodOne reason people like you were so confident that Sony was going to miss their target forecast this year was estimates from people like Welfare (that and some weird googling and lack of comprehension).
I'm genuinely starting to wonder if Game Pass is actually sustainable beyond the short term.
If you look at it entirely from a console warrior perspective as you always do, sure.
The reality is that thread is chock full of PS5 owners who are just sick of Sony’s lazy software output on PS5.
I'll just say there are very few instances over the past few years that my estimates are off by an egregious amount for any one platform, and often it's due to unexplainable price changes I have no idea why even exist. I also already take into account the possible ranges for each console when I post the results. If I'm posting PS5 is ~245K, I'm not seeing it selling over 250K, and 250K is less likely.
In low selling months like this was, my method for doing all of this is extremely accurate. Just this month my predictions for revenue of each console were within 5% of the actual results. (PS5 I predicted - 39% (off by 1%), XBS -51% (off by 1%), Switch -49% (off by 4%)).
My variables are all public knowledge as well. I take into account how each console ranks at every retailer we have access to, the numbers shown by Amazon and Walmart, how I estimate those, all the price cuts that might exist, etc. When Mat shares the console sku splits, I already have a good idea where they are at anyway, but the extra accuracy helps.
April - September 2024 did not ship enough consoles for Sony to hit 18M shipped for a 12 month period. PS5 did a lot better than expected last quarter.
Oh there will be a second coming…A small group on NeoGaf would have had me believing that Indiana Jones was going to be the second coming.
I have played 16 games on that list and enjoyed every single second of every single one.I can't stress this enough: We're getting one-to-two GOTY nominees (and more of that caliber) every year.
This year we're getting Ghost of Yotei and Death Stranding 2. Next year we already know about Saros. Sony is having issues, but the pace of great releases hasn't meaningfully slowed down.
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2nd to Fortnite.If I have learned anything from other threads this must mean COD is still the best game made and every single person is totally happy with it right?
I'm genuinely starting to wonder if Game Pass is actually sustainable beyond the short term.
I guess I thought his post was pretty clear on comparing what we have had so far was going to keep this generation as the worst yet but maybe I was mistaken in how I read itAs someone who voted for ps5 in that thread, I would like to give some context. Ps4 was my first console. For that poll, I only compared ps5 to ps4. I didnt consider ps3, ps2 and ps1 because I didn't have them( even though I have played on them). Moreover, for that poll I am comparing 7-8 years of ps4 to 3-4 years of ps5. Not to mention the fact that ps games are also going to pc which does lessen the value of the console for me. So keeping all that in mind, I voted for ps5 and I believe I am not the only one.
For a lot of people, ps4 was their first playstation console. So that poll only proved that people like the ps4 better than the ps5. Not that Sony first party games are bad or anything to that extend. Infact I would argue a lot of Sony games are better on ps5 as compared to ps4.
Gt sport was good, gt 7 is better.
Astrobot is the best platformer Sony has made.
Helldivers 2 is better than any mp game Sony made for ps4,etc.
2nd to Fortnite.
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I could be mistaken as well but it's how I took that post.I guess I thought his post was pretty clear on comparing what we have had so far was going to keep this generation as the worst yet but maybe I was mistaken in how I read it
I can get why people may be disappointed by current Sony output, I would also prefer if they released more games and some Sony sequels have worse story than their ps4 counterparts and if you are someone who considers story as a major factor, it's understandable to dislike their output. At the end of the day it's pretty subjective as you said. We all have different tastes. Just wanted to clarify why someone, like me, voted for ps5 even though they are happy with it.And personally I can't bank on whats coming as being total bangers to pull it out of that position for me
I appreciate your input into the thought process
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As someone who voted for ps5 in that thread, I would like to give some context. Ps4 was my first console. For that poll, I only compared ps5 to ps4. I didnt consider ps3, ps2 and ps1 because I didn't have them( even though I have played on them). Moreover, for that poll I am comparing 7-8 years of ps4 to 3-4 years of ps5. Not to mention the fact that ps games are also going to pc which does lessen the value of the console for me. So keeping all that in mind, I voted for ps5 and I believe I am not the only one.
For a lot of people, ps4 was their first playstation console. So that poll only proved that people like the ps4 better than the ps5. Not that Sony first party games are bad or anything to that extend. Infact I would argue a lot of Sony games are better on ps5 as compared to ps4.
Gt sport was good, gt 7 is better.
Astrobot is the best platformer Sony has made.
Helldivers 2 is better than any mp game Sony made for ps4,etc.
I can't stress this enough: We're getting one-to-two GOTY nominees (and more of that caliber) every year.
This year we're getting Ghost of Yotei and Death Stranding 2. Next year we already know about Saros. Sony is having issues, but the pace of great releases hasn't meaningfully slowed down.
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Possibly but even if people were comparing the PS5 vs PS4 the poll was pretty clearHeisenbergFX4 This is actually a fantastic point that was lost in the poll. What percentage of respondents even played PlayStation before PS3 or PS4?
I've been gaming since NES and Atari 2600, but how many Gaffers were PC gamers or just new console gamers?
That poll could have had people select their top 3 PlayStation consoles and that probably would have given a less biased result.
A small group on NeoGaf would have had me believing that Indiana Jones was going to be the second coming.
Possibly but even if people were comparing the PS5 vs PS4 the poll was pretty clear
Maybe GAF is made up of 70% Xbox users or actual PS fans decided not to vote
Heck I know I have been called a PS hater
The guy who owns multiple Pros, is right now playing BO6 on my Pro as I hate PS so much I bought it there instead of just playing it via Gamepass.
The guy who kept the Pro enhanced games list up to date
Regardless what we try to read into it the poll speaks for itself imo
Indy is not a normie game ( feels like an immersive sim)Msft should just have done a dude raider game. Again goty is meaningless without a wide audience ( see tango ).Indiana Jones in it's second month was beaten by old games like The Crew Motorfest and It Takes Two.... in DOLLAR SALES?
Gamepass can't even be used as an excuse as it's not even in the top 10 on the Xbox platform being beaten by other old Gamepass games like Flight Sim 24 and Forza Horizon 5.
Let's move that goal post, yet again, to TESVI.They are pinning all their hopes on Avowed now. Lol.