• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Wkd BO 04•14-16•17 - Can't fight fate, Baby: F8 leaves WW B.O. opening record in dust

Status
Not open for further replies.

kswiston

Member
Somebody said Furious 7 opening weekend was about $475m if you aligned the China and Russia openings to the same weekend. That means F8 comparatively got about 90% of Furious 7's opening.

If that holds for the rest of its run, and keeping in mind that Furious 7 opened on a Sunday in China, it's looking at $1.3-1.4b worldwide.

That was probably me who said it. But China screws things up in that comparison, since F7 launched on a Sunday. That "opening weekend" was 1 day.
 
Jurassic World hype came out of nowhere for sure. Jurassic Park is a cool brand but the third piece of crap didn't make much of a splash and then the trailers didn't seem to get that much hype

And then worldwide it just kills
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
I have no idea why a mediocre movie with no cultural impact other than "IT MADE A BAZILLION DOLLAS" is being stanned as this huge franchise that millions are just thirsting for.

Get out of your goddamn nerd bubbles one day.
 
Jurassic World hype came out of nowhere for sure. Jurassic Park is a cool brand but the third piece of crap didn't make much of a splash and then the trailers didn't seem to get that much hype

And then worldwide it just kills
This isn't really true; the trailer had 60 million views on youtube by time it released, had a killer Super Bowl spot and also had a ton of marketing.

The signs were there, but all of us put too much emphasis on the JP sequels hurting the brand rather than recognizing how well-regarded the first was. Any sub-$100M OW predictions were always nuts though, considering Godzilla opened to $93M just one year prior.
 

hirokazu

Member
That was probably me who said it. But China screws things up in that comparison, since F7 launched on a Sunday. That "opening weekend" was 1 day.
Yeah, 90% of F7's worldwide gross is about $1.44b, so I tried to account for that with a $1.3-$1.4b estimate. Maybe I need to shave off a bit more to account for it, I don't know.
 

kswiston

Member
Jurassic World hype came out of nowhere for sure. Jurassic Park is a cool brand but the third piece of crap didn't make much of a splash and then the trailers didn't seem to get that much hype

And then worldwide it just kills

Jurassic World from tracking to actual box office still doesn't make much sense to me. I mean, this was the studio tracking 3 weeks before release:

http://deadline.com/2015/05/jurassic-world-tracking-man-of-steel-last-100m-opening-1201431764/

Tracking for the next installment in the Universal Pictures franchise Jurassic World came out yesterday, and it looks like it's heading for a $100 million-$130 million opening, in line with Warner Bros.' Man Of Steel which opened to $116.6M in the summer of 2013. Man Of Steel ended its domestic run with $291M. From the tracking we are looking at right now, total awareness for the film is in the 90% range and unaided awareness is higher than Warner Bros.' big disaster movie San Andreas which opens next weekend starring social media giant Dwayne Johnson. Jurassic World, which stars Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard, doesn't open until June 12 ... so early tracking on that is pretty great.


Variety managed to publish this gem of promethean foresight from moviepilot like an hour before we got the Thursday previews number:

http://variety.com/2015/data/box-of...our-125-million-at-the-box-office-1201518701/

Digital Tracking: ‘Jurassic World' Will Devour $125 Million at the Box Office

”Jurassic World" is set for a box office weekend as monstrous as its subject matter, devouring everything in its wake on its way to a total well over $100 million. That would see it claim third place for 2015 behind ”Furious 7" and ”Avengers: Age of Ultron," and beat out ”Man of Steel" for the highest June opening of all time ($116 million in 2013).

The returning dinosaurs have stirred up a maelstrom of social activity. Anticipation has been fevered since the first trailer debuted, and ”Jurassic World" went on from there to amass an enormous 167 million YouTube views in addition to 106 million on Facebook. ”Jurassic World" has driven a gigantic 615,000 tweets, which in 2015 is a total that's third only to ”Ultron" with 1.58 million tweets and ”Furious 7" with 1.15 million tweets. ”Jurassic World" comes in second to ”Ultron" on search volume but outdoes ”Furious 7," with the dinos netting 365,000 searches to ”Furious 7's" 360,000, both in the shadow of ”Ultron's" 1.3 million searches. All told, ”Jurassic World" is set for a huge total of about $125 million for the weekend.


Then everyone decided that they couldn't live without witnessing a T-rex and a Velociraptor tag team fight, and suddenly this was the Avengers with a dash of summer weekdays and an extra helping of China at the box office.
 
I guess you're reborn.

tumblr_n8jhoubDK21rpfnrio3_1280.png
 
I have no idea why a mediocre movie with no cultural impact other than "IT MADE A BAZILLION DOLLAS" is being stanned as this huge franchise that millions are just thirsting for.

Get out of your goddamn nerd bubbles one day.

You're in the bubble dude. A bubble of denial and refusal to accept lord Cameron as a blockbuster savior. And you're raging in it right now fam. Ready to pop. It's not too late.
 

hirokazu

Member
I have no idea why a mediocre movie with no cultural impact other than "IT MADE A BAZILLION DOLLAS" is being stanned as this huge franchise that millions are just thirsting for.

Get out of your goddamn nerd bubbles one day.
Probably because naysayers always like to belittle its actual cultural impact. And belittle people who are probably more realistic about its prospects as being in nerd bubbles while posting on a gaming forum.

Given the amount of people who were adamant it was gonna bomb hard, you'd believe the first film was practically dead on arrival. People also seem to forget how it managed to grab $2.7b at the box office in the first place. It's almost as if people liked the movie.
 

Anth0ny

Member
When you put it like that. Avatar 2 should top Jurassic World and Star Wars 7.

Truth be told I don't like defending Avatar but saying no one remembers it? Tell it to Disney; they invested big time on a Pandora attraction.

disney fucked up

no one could have anticipated this complete lack of anyone caring about avatar back when the movie first came out


when avatar 2 does less than a billi, disney will convert it to star wars land 2
 
Jurassic World from tracking to actual box office still doesn't make much sense to me. I mean, this was the studio tracking 3 weeks before release:

http://deadline.com/2015/05/jurassic-world-tracking-man-of-steel-last-100m-opening-1201431764/




Variety managed to publish this gem of promethean foresight from moviepilot like an hour before we got the Thursday previews number:

http://variety.com/2015/data/box-of...our-125-million-at-the-box-office-1201518701/




Then everyone decided that they couldn't live without witnessing a T-rex and a Velociraptor tag team fight, and suddenly this was the Avengers with a dash of summer weekdays and an extra helping of China at the box office.
Fun fact: The Lost World's OW adjusted to ~$130M in 2015. Also, the highest June OW before Jurassic World was Man of Steel with $116M.

I've noticed that precedent plays a noticeable part in what insiders will predict, even if the examples are a reach, so I wouldn't be surprised if those two factors were why tracking services were reluctant to predict an opening above that range.
 
no one could have anticipated this complete lack of anyone caring about avatar back when the movie first came out

This is maybe the most succinct way of describing that viewpoint that I've read.

Like, seriously: Imagine it's November 2010. The big fat 4 disc box-set of Avatar just dropped.

I tell you that in 8 years not only will a sequel not even have been started, but a theme park will only just now have opened to less attention than the announcement that Terminator 2 will be converted to 3D.

Who would believe that.
 

kswiston

Member
Yeah, 90% of F7's worldwide gross is about $1.44b, so I tried to account for that with a $1.3-$1.4b estimate. Maybe I need to shave off a bit more to account for it, I don't know.

I think it would be simpler to just set aside the Chinese gross. Fate of the Furious is going end up with a similar final USD gross to Furious 7 in China. Figure $400M for simplicity's sake. I'd give that a +/- 10% error margin, but close enough.

Last I checked, the Chinese weekend total for F8 ended up being around $193M. That means that the rest of the world was ~$340M during that opening weekend.

Furious 7 opened to $397M without China and Russia in its first weekend like you said. If you throw Russia back in to make it comparable to F8, F7's opening was a bit over $410M.

340/410 = .829

So Fate of the Furious opened to around 83% of Furious 7's worldwide opening, excluding China.

Furious 7 made around $1130M outside of China. If you multiplied that the 83% above, you get a bit less than $940M for F8 with the same legs that Furious 7 had. Throw in the $400M from China, and you end up with $1340M.

Fate of the Furious isn't actually all that likely to match Furious 7's legs though. To start with, followups to breakout movie phenomenons are pretty much universally more frontloaded. I can't think of any examples where that isn't true. Furious 7 also had almost an entire month to itself, while Guardians 2 starts launching in overseas territories next Wednesday.

Based on that, I'd probably target $1.25B (+/- 5%)
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
disney fucked up

no one could have anticipated this complete lack of anyone caring about avatar back when the movie first came out


when avatar 2 does less than a billi, disney will convert it to star wars land 2

This is maybe the most succinct way of describing that viewpoint that I've read.

Like, seriously: Imagine it's November 2010. The big fat 4 disc box-set of Avatar just dropped.

I tell you that in 8 years not only will a sequel not even have been started, but a theme park will only just now have opened to less attention than the announcement that Terminator 2 will be converted to 3D.

Who would believe that.
nodding_clint_eastwood.gif


I know the seven stans of this movie left can't handle it, but this thing is just irrelevant.
 
I'm not the spreadsheet type who will gather months of posts for a crow thread...but you all will see how wrong you are. In your hearts.
 
I'm not the spreadsheet type who will gather months of posts for a crow thread...but you all will see how wrong you are. In your hearts.

I forget who it was, but whoever it was that did all that copy+pasting to crow over fuckin' Ant Man of all the goddamn things seems to have put that phenomena to sleep for awhile.
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
I forget who it was, but whoever it was that did all that copy+pasting to crow over fuckin' Ant Man of all the goddamn things seems to have put that phenomena to sleep for awhile.
And I applaud that motherfucker. GAF needed to eat that crow after all that shit they were talking on our boy Paul Rudd.
 

kswiston

Member
I don't think that Avatar 2 is going to be a Cameron threepeat when it comes to obliterating records, but I think that some of you are playing up the importance of cultural relevance here.

Avatar 2 gets a ton of free publicity for being the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time. Your parents' news channel or paper of choice is going to give some time/space to Avatar 2's release, even if they don't typically focus on movies or entertainment.

Awareness will already be there. If the trailers and marketing bring their A-game, getting people hyped again won't be all that hard.

EDIT: If Cameron somehow entered the "out of touch old man" phase of his career in the past decade, and this is more ID4R than Terminator 2 quality-wise, then it will then be time to lower those expectations. Except in China. China is the box office equivalent of the island of misfit toys.
 

Anth0ny

Member
This is maybe the most succinct way of describing that viewpoint that I've read.

Like, seriously: Imagine it's November 2010. The big fat 4 disc box-set of Avatar just dropped.

I tell you that in 8 years not only will a sequel not even have been started, but a theme park will only just now have opened to less attention than the announcement that Terminator 2 will be converted to 3D.

Who would believe that.

It's really insane. When Avatar was going on its run, at the very least, I was expecting toys, comics and novels NON STOP. Followed by a sequel a couple of years later, of course.

Instead... absolutely nothing to fill the 10 year void between films. Madness.

Not to mention the film itself is completely forgettable.
 
The worst thing about Avatar 2 not coming until 2019/2020 is having to wait that long to laugh at anyone who is crazy enough to seriously think it won't make a billion dollars. I know the goal posts are immediately going to be moved to it obviously not making as much as the first, but I'm still going to enjoy it.
 

wachie

Member
Jurassic World from tracking to actual box office still doesn't make much sense to me. I mean, this was the studio tracking 3 weeks before release:

http://deadline.com/2015/05/jurassic-world-tracking-man-of-steel-last-100m-opening-1201431764/




Variety managed to publish this gem of promethean foresight from moviepilot like an hour before we got the Thursday previews number:

http://variety.com/2015/data/box-of...our-125-million-at-the-box-office-1201518701/




Then everyone decided that they couldn't live without witnessing a T-rex and a Velociraptor tag team fight, and suddenly this was the Avengers with a dash of summer weekdays and an extra helping of China at the box office.
I remember this very vividly. I was in China then and saw the hype first hand, missed the NA hype.
 
Ant Man...lmao. now there's an utterly mediocre movie that has no business having stans.

Avatar has been so dormant for so long. Pop culture impact is an irrelevant talking point for this property.

It seems like they're going in heavy on it this time tho with the sequel. Considering avatar land and that game that is being made by Massive/Ubi. Whether or not those take off is yet to be seen. Well the avatar land will obviously be huge. Shit looks dope. But we'll see how continuously succesful it ends up being for Disney world

And yeah. Obviously when the marketing hits that's when hype lives or dies.

Right now it's all moot tho. It's still so early.
 
If Sam Worthington was replaced would anyone care?

Unless they're bring back his twin brother, isn't he just doing performance capture for it?

wait, the twin brother might be dead or something. Can't remember most of the movie besides the learning to fly scene and bombastic action finale.
 

Anth0ny

Member
People really loved that Alice in Wonderland movie from 2010 eh

People really came out in droves to watch the sequel that came out 6 years later eh
 
Did anyone outside of pot smoking hippies actually like Alice in Wonderland? Bronson is right ( D: ) that the 3D shine caused by played a huge part in Alice and also Sam Worthington's only post-Avatar hit, Clash of the Titans.
 

Jacce

Banned
Bad example

Avatar was such a hit for 3D that it made Alice a hit
And a huge (if not the majority) of Avatar's boxoffice run was people freaking out about 3D and having to see it in 3D.

I am sure the complete lack of interest in 3D now will do wonders for a sequel to a movie literally no one but Cameron stans can name a single character from.

Seriously, ask random people you know to name a character from Avatar. They won't be able to name ANYONE. The best you will get is "Wasn't that the movie with the blue people?".
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom