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[LectureMaster]

Analyst: Xbox Series X|S could have a "last hurrah" with Grand Theft Auto 6, were it not for a certain "blue" elephant in the room

Recently, we spoke to MIDiA research about the current state of Xbox, and what the data is saying about Xbox's short term future.

www.windowscentral.com

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Recently, we spoke to Rhys Elliott of MIDiA Research to see what the data is saying about Xbox's near-term future.

"The Series X|S and PS5 generation has been won, but Xbox could use the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 as a last hurrah for its Series X|S generation, thanks to the low price of the Series S." Elliott explained. "Like Rockstar’s other flagship titles, GTA 6 will hit PlayStation and Xbox before it hits PC. Therefore, it could pay off for Xbox to have a significant Series S push and fire sale to tie in with GTA 6 — as one last hurrah for this generation. The marketing team should be banging the drum, highlighting that 'the Series S is the most accessible way to play GTA 6.' A sub-$200 Series S could be an enticing entry point to GTA for cash-strapped consumers, of which there are many, thanks to today’s tumultuous economy and cost-of-living crisis."

I've written previously myself how a marketing campaign with Grand Theft Auto 6 tied to the Xbox Series S could be a powerful parting shot for the Xbox Series X|S generation. But, as Elliott explains, the "blue" elephant in the room is that it most likely won't be Xbox winning marketing rights for the game.

"The sad-dad blue elephant in the room here is the likelihood that PlayStation – not Microsoft – will secure the marketing rights to GTA 6. Hogwarts Legacy got plenty of non-console owners to buy consoles, and most landed on the PS5, owing to PlayStation securing the marketing rights. It is worth noting that PlayStation would very much want the same thing to happen with GTA 6. Take Two also of course wants to sell the most copies it can and would do so via PS5’s higher installed base. That’s why I reckon PlayStation will get the rights."

Rhys Elliott noted too that, with Xbox Game Pass and other subscription services falling short for growth, the requirement of "paid online multiplayer" via PSN Plus and Xbox Game Pass Core could also get a bump from GTA's popularity. But, if Xbox doesn't land the marketing rights, it's unlikely Xbox would be able to capitalize beyond mentioning GTA 6 for Xbox on podcasts and the like. Microsoft has the cash to acquire marketing rights for GTA 6, but the smaller install base would lead to a price premium from Take Two. Coupled with the apparent decreased appetite to even sell Xbox Series X|S hardware suggests this possibility is simply unlikely to pass.

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[LectureMaster]

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Instead of 1.5M consoles sold worldwide for 2025, they will sell 1.7M.

 

[kazuyamishima]

If anything, the biggest boost will be for the PS5/Pro.

I doubt that most people wanting to buy a console for GTA VI will think “oh yeah, I’ll get me an Xbox instead of the PS5 to play GTAVI”.

 

[Heisenberg007]

lol the biggest boost will for the PS5 Pro and the PS5. Xbox Series has no chance with GTA 6, especially considering that PlayStation will market the game.

 

[SimTourist]

Remember the Starfield and Cod boost

 

[Three]

I wouldn't be so sure on who has marketing rights. It's really up in the air.

 

[TBiddy]

Noone gives a shit about the Xbox consoles any more. GTA VI or not.

 

[SimTourist]

I wouldn't be so sure on who has marketing rights. It's really up in the air.

Sony marketed RDR2 so it's pretty easy to guess

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Rumor: Sony Has Secured The Marketing Rights To GTA 6 - Gameranx

Honestly, they better have secured those rights.

gameranx.com

 

[Three]

Sony marketed RDR2 so it's pretty easy to guess

I agree that it's more likely due to install base and cost but it's not a given either. The ABK trial/Take two stuff that leaked just gave me a hunch that it might not be so clear cut. I remember with GTA4 everybody thought Sony had it due to GTA3.

 

[baphomet]

The fuck does GTA VI have to do with Xbox?

That ship has sailed. No one is buying Xbox consoles, GTAVI or not.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I should really jump into the analysis business. These people can throw out the most absurd analysis and seemingly get paid for it.

Monster Hunter Wilds just released in Japan and I've never seen Xbox sell so poorly. 721 units compared to the previous week of 1,535. Why did Xbox sell fewer units that week despite MHW and the cheap Series S? That's because demand is only part of the equation. The other half of the equation is supply. If Xbox doesn't have the requisite inventory, it's not going to sell and why would retailers stock Xbox in large quantities when they could stock PlayStation instead. You're taking a huge gamble on people picking up Xboxes when they might just go with PlayStations anyways and then you're stuck with the inventory and end up having to take a loss on it.

In the next couple of months we're going to get Sony's forecast for the fiscal year and we're also going to get Microsoft's. The reality is that Microsoft will ship significantly fewer units next fiscal year than this one and Sony MIGHT ship MORE units than this fiscal year.

I bet Microsoft won't ship more than 3 million units this whole year while Sony will do a minimum of 15 million units. Even if the Xbox sells out due to GTA6, it won't see any tangible benefits from it. Microsoft doesn't have a decreased appetite for selling Xbox, it's the retailers who have a decreased appetite for buying them.

Also, there isn't going to be a tangible impact on PS+ or GamePass. Most of these people who will end up playing GTA6 online (assuming it's even ready at launch) will have already been playing GTA5 Online. Even with an influx of PC gamers jumping onto console to play it, I doubt it makes much difference to the overall numbers.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

This article screams "keep buying Xbox, there is still a chance for the ecosystem", which is pathetic given this guy's general commentary on things.

This should be the last year of fanboy-ism and console wars. It won't be, but it should.

 

[Zuzu]

More like it’ll boost PS5 Pro sales. It wouldn’t surprise me if more people buy a Pro than a Series console in order to play the game.

 

[saintjules]

If anything, the biggest boost will be for the PS5/Pro.

I doubt that most people wanting to buy a console for GTA VI will think “oh yeah, I’ll get me an Xbox instead of the PS5 to play GTAVI”.

Nailed it. And if Sony has found some way to work with Rockstar to make the Pro version prestine especially with PSSR in effect, then I don't see any reason to even look at the Xbox version. Already having a Pro it wasn't even a consideration anyway.

 

[Shubh_C63]

highlighting that 'the Series S is the most accessible way to play GTA 6.' A sub-$200 Series S could be an enticing entry point to GTA for cash-strapped consumers

From "Most powerful console Beast ever" / "Best place to play" quotes being reduced to "most accessible place to play for cash strapped users" .

 

[HRK69]

Noone gives a shit about the Xbox consoles any more. GTA VI or not.

This forum is obsessed with them

 

[gerth666]

 

[deriks]

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

Another day, another batch of Military Grade Hopium from Jez

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

lol

 

[gerth666]

I should really jump into the analysis business. These people can throw out the most absurd analysis and seemingly get paid for it.

You provide a far more useful and insightful analysis then most of those clowns.
It boggles the mind that they get paid to spout such nonsense

 

[TBiddy]

This forum is obsessed with them

Haha, true. It's an unhealthy relationship for a lot of the posters on here.

 

[dragonyeuw]

I'm willing to bet good money that GTA6 will mean sweet fuck all for Xbox console sales.

 

[dragonyeuw]

I should really jump into the analysis business. These people can throw out the most absurd analysis and seemingly get paid for it.

Lol I'm saying. People actually getting money for this shit and I damn well know my takes couldn't possibly be any worse.

 

[Esppiral]

I don't think GTA 6 will boost Xbox consoles sales, like at all.

If anything, the biggest boost will be for the PS5/Pro.

I doubt that most people wanting to buy a console for GTA VI will think “oh yeah, I’ll get me an Xbox instead of the PS5 to play GTAVI”.

Dude no one is buying the pro lol

 

[drganon]

Phil and company really did run Xbox straight into the ground.

 

[Ebrietas]

Even if you wanted an Xbox by the time this is out, you will have to go out of your way to get one instead of a ps5 which will be everywhere.

Retailers don’t want them and MS will barely make any.

 

[Gilgalaad]

Mourning is difficult …

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

Are we SURE that GTA6 can run on Series S?

I am serious. The RAM issue can still happen.

 

[Topher]

This forum is obsessed with them

This forum didn't write the article my man

 

[winjer]

GTA6 will be a boost for the PS5, especially the Pro.

 

[Vroadstar]

This forum is obsessed with them

 

[moogman]

GTA6 would only help MS specifically if they tied together licencing so buying it on Xbox gave you a PC licence too through Game Pass. Obviously that would cost Rockstar billions so won't happen.

 

[FrankWza]

There's no reason for GTA VI to be on the series s. They're going to follow the GTA v model and there will be plenty of time for it to release on other consoles over time. It probably too late to salvage the time and resources they wasted but it's at least 6 months from release and any time and effort saved at this point would be beneficial to everyone.

 

[GHG]

There's always something with these guys.

The "wait for xxxx" meme has been done to death at this point, how on earth after all the previous high profile "wait for xxxx" failings do these people keep on doing this?

 

[Astray]

GTA6 would only help MS specifically if they tied together licencing so buying it on Xbox gave you a PC licence too through Game Pass. Obviously that would cost Rockstar billions so won't happen.

Yeah they won't.

Ubisoft, Rockstar and EA all don't participate in the Play Anywhere program.

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

I mean...Monster Hunter did nothing for Xbox as far as i know (sales even decreased in Japan lmao). So i'm not sure how they think this will do anything for Xbox.

Sony probably has those PS5 + GTAVI bundles lined up at this point. People go where their friends are.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

hard hopium

 

[GHG]

Yeah they won't.

Ubisoft, Rockstar and EA all don't participate in the Play Anywhere program.

Even if they did, nobody on PC gives a shit about play anywhere due to it being tied to the windows store. The bulk of sales will come from steam and the Rockstar launcher. Even the EGS would fair better.

There's also this to consider - when has play anywhere ever boosted sales for a game on Xbox/the windows store? If it were the case we should have plenty of examples by now.

 

[Astray]

Even if they did, nobody on PC gives a shit about play anywhere due to it being tied to the windows store. The bulk of sales will come from steam and the Rockstar launcher. Even the EGS would fair better.

There's also this to consider - when has play anywhere ever boosted sales for a game on Xbox/the windows store? If it were the case we should have plenty of examples by now.

It's one of those initiatives where you don't really know who it's made for, or how it even benefits the company.

P.S. Even Bethesda doesn't support play anywhere rofl. It's honestly an aborted initiative that never really gained traction.

 

[Spiral1407]

I agree that it's more likely due to install base and cost but it's not a given either. The ABK trial/Take two stuff that leaked just gave me a hunch that it might not be so clear cut. I remember with GTA4 everybody thought Sony had it due to GTA3.

That was back when Xbox was actually competing and the PS3 had major issues though.

 

[Mownoc]

A sub $200 firesale for series s? What would be the point? Sure to get rid of existing inventory before discontinuation but they don't have significant inventory now and shouldn't be building it up just to lose a ton of money in a fire sale selling them at a huge loss when GTA 6 launches.

You only burn your money like that when you're stopping manufacturing. So I'm not sure how the analyst thinks this move would "pay off" for MS.

 

[moogman]

It's one of those initiatives where you don't really know who it's made for, or how it even benefits the company.

P.S. Even Bethesda doesn't support play anywhere rofl. It's honestly an aborted initiative that never really gained traction.

It's only a benefit for the huge games like GTA where people buy it on console and then on PC 18 months later. The thing is, they would never make something like GTA play anywhere as Rockstar stagger the releases to get people buying twice. Basically the one possible benefit would never happen due to loss of sales.

 

[Astray]

A sub $200 firesale for series s? What would be the point? Sure to get rid of existing inventory before discontinuation but they don't have significant inventory now and shouldn't be building it up just to lose a ton of money in a fire sale selling them at a huge loss when GTA 6 launches.

You only burn your money like that when you're stopping manufacturing. So I'm not sure how the analyst thinks this move would "pay off" for MS.

Also it already happened, didn't work.

Series S went down to $150 2 years ago and it didn't sell then either.

Microsoft has a desirability problem, they could give away those machines for free and even then it wouldn't get them that many customers.

It's only a benefit for the huge games like GTA where people buy it on console and then on PC 18 months later. The thing is, they would never make something like GTA play anywhere as Rockstar stagger the releases to get people buying twice. Basically the one possible benefit would never happen due to loss of sales.

Play Anywhere and Gamepass are initiatives that really don't have much in the way of value proposition design.

The 1st one has issues with it being completely at odds with publisher interests, along with being targeted at a miniscule userbase segment (who exactly owns both a PC AND an Xbox? That's a very small crowd).

Gamepass simply was the wrong value delivered to the wrong user subsets. They shouldn't be throwing out free games to subscribers because that hits the buying habits of power users that buy 5-10 games a year. They should have been targeting to further monetize for the GAAS crowds (the vast majority of gamers) through adding value like exclusive perks and QoL benefits instead.

This Xbox management team has no idea how to read the market and I will always bet on their failure because they simply never learn.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

COD:

 

[Mephisto40]

I genuinely can't imagine how bad GTA 6 is going to look and run on an xbox series S

 

[onQ123]

This forum didn't write the article my man

I wouldn't be too sure of that .

I think our conversation was tapped

Today is one day

 

[cireza]

Reversed logic. If anything, this game should definitely bury the console and make the gap even wider.